America East Update: Week 1
November 16, 2025The America East enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for America East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): UMBC
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Albany, Binghamton, Maine, UNH, UMass Lowell
Team-by-Team Analysis
Albany
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1446.6 (ranked 262 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.09 (ranked 306 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- TOV_PCT (Turnover Rate (turnovers per 100 possessions – lower is better)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Binghamton
Record: 1-4 | Elo: 1426.8 (ranked 283 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.77 (ranked 325 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Bryant
Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1554.0 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.01 (ranked 289 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Maine
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1487.4 (ranked 205 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.24 (ranked 267 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
NJIT
Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1375.6 (ranked 336 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.28 (ranked 228 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
UMBC
Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1426.4 (ranked 286 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.90 (ranked 194 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
UMass Lowell
Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1471.9 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.50 (ranked 357 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
UNH
Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1401.0 (ranked 314 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.51 (ranked 353 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Vermont
Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1606.6 (ranked 55 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.78 (ranked 103 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As America East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
