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New Haven

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-3.03299
Elo1501.69182
RPI0.0181
Updated through 2025-11-06

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend

About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
2025-11-07ColumbiaHNon-Conference---
2025-11-08Penn StateHNon-Conference---
2025-11-10UMass LowellANon-Conference---
2025-11-15Delaware StateHNon-Conference---
2025-11-18Seton HallANon-Conference---
2025-11-22Vermont State - RandolphHNon-D1---
2025-11-25Salve ReginaHNon-D1---
2025-11-30Mitchell CollegeHNon-D1---
2025-12-06Boston CollegeANon-Conference---
2025-12-10NJITANon-Conference---
2025-12-22FordhamANon-Conference---
2025-12-29VanderbiltANon-Conference---
2026-01-02StonehillAConference---
2026-01-04Cent Conn StAConference---
2026-01-08Le MoyneAConference---
2026-01-10Fair DickinsonHConference---
2026-01-17WagnerHConference---
2026-01-19Chicago StateAConference---
2026-01-23MercyhurstHConference---
2026-01-25St Francis (PA)HConference---
2026-01-29MercyhurstAConference---
2026-01-31St Francis (PA)AConference---
2026-02-05BrooklynAConference---
2026-02-07Chicago StateHConference---
2026-02-12Cent Conn StHConference---
2026-02-14BrooklynHConference---
2026-02-19StonehillHConference---
2026-02-21Fair DickinsonAConference---
2026-02-26WagnerAConference---
2026-02-28Le MoyneHConference---
Date Opponent Site Type Result Score Record
2025-11-03 UConn A Non-Conference L 55-79 0-1 (0-0)
2025-11-07 Columbia H Non-Conference - - -
2025-11-08 Penn State H Non-Conference - - -
2025-11-10 UMass Lowell A Non-Conference - - -
2025-11-15 Delaware State H Non-Conference - - -
2025-11-18 Seton Hall A Non-Conference - - -
2025-11-22 Vermont State - Randolph H Non-D1 - - -
2025-11-25 Salve Regina H Non-D1 - - -
2025-11-30 Mitchell College H Non-D1 - - -
2025-12-06 Boston College A Non-Conference - - -
2025-12-10 NJIT A Non-Conference - - -
2025-12-22 Fordham A Non-Conference - - -
2025-12-29 Vanderbilt A Non-Conference - - -
2026-01-02 Stonehill A Conference - - -
2026-01-04 Cent Conn St A Conference - - -
2026-01-08 Le Moyne A Conference - - -
2026-01-10 Fair Dickinson H Conference - - -
2026-01-17 Wagner H Conference - - -
2026-01-19 Chicago State A Conference - - -
2026-01-23 Mercyhurst H Conference - - -
2026-01-25 St Francis (PA) H Conference - - -
2026-01-29 Mercyhurst A Conference - - -
2026-01-31 St Francis (PA) A Conference - - -
2026-02-05 Brooklyn A Conference - - -
2026-02-07 Chicago State H Conference - - -
2026-02-12 Cent Conn St H Conference - - -
2026-02-14 Brooklyn H Conference - - -
2026-02-19 Stonehill H Conference - - -
2026-02-21 Fair Dickinson A Conference - - -
2026-02-26 Wagner A Conference - - -
2026-02-28 Le Moyne H Conference - - -

New Haven Offense

Metric New Haven Opponent Metric

New Haven Defense

Metric New Haven Opponent Metric

Model Predictions

Model New Haven Opponent Predicted Score Spread Result MAE
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Showing - of

Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.471
Rank: 4 of 10 in NEC, 234 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 5 of 10 in NEC, 137 of 365 in D1
234th

Turnovers


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.155
Rank: 3 of 10 in NEC, 134 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 10 in NEC, 203 of 365 in D1
134th

Off Reb Pct


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.118
Rank: 10 of 10 in NEC, 351 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 10 in NEC, 125 of 365 in D1
351st

FT Rate


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.269
Rank: 7 of 10 in NEC, 273 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 10 in NEC, 183 of 365 in D1
273rd

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.554
Rank: 3 of 10 in NEC, 232 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 10 in NEC, 112 of 365 in D1
232nd

Opp Turnovers


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.165
Rank: 4 of 10 in NEC, 167 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 10 in NEC, 164 of 365 in D1
167th

Def Reb Pct


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.667
Rank: 5 of 10 in NEC, 185 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 10 in NEC, 100 of 365 in D1
185th

Opp FT Rate


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.357
Rank: 5 of 10 in NEC, 187 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 9 of 10 in NEC, 141 of 365 in D1
187th
Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 83.74
354th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.6%
184th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 80.4%
216th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 44.2%
167th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 73.1%
20th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.9%
63rd

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 58.8%
37th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 52.6%
146th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 26.9%
346th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 4.6%
343rd

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.7%
340th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 21.4%
312th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 26.9%
273rd

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.3%
333rd

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.7%
277th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 42.9%
361st

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 13.0%
363rd

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 13.9%
293rd

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 7.7%
313th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.7%
182nd

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.5%
134th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 11.8%
351st

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 64.65
346th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.85
313th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.47
234th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 86.77
139th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 40.6%
230th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 84.2%
204th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 48.2%
232nd

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 58.9%
158th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.6%
211th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 49.6%
174th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 57.6%
230th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 41.1%
207th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.0%
235th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 34.6%
214th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 34.8%
212th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 35.7%
187th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.6%
257th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.1%
180th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 85.0%
343rd

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 40.7%
55th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.5%
118th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 1.5%
272nd

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.6%
164th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.5%
167th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 66.7%
185th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 66.50
336th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.19
320th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.6%
232nd
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