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St. Thomas - Minnesota

Model	Score	Rank
Adj EM	3.37	133
Elo	1590.43	77
RPI	0.535	101

Updated through 2026-01-22

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend

About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record (Conf)
2026-01-24	South Dakota	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	North Dakota	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-01	Kansas City	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-04	South Dakota State	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-07	Oral Roberts	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-12	Omaha	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	Kansas City	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Denver	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	North Dakota State	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	Omaha	H	Conference	-	-	-

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record
2021-11-09	Chicago State	A	Non-Conference	L	72-77	0-1 (0-0)
2021-11-13	St Francis (BKN)	A	Non-Conference	W	91-73	1-1 (0-0)
2021-11-15	Fordham	A	Non-Conference	L	78-84	1-2 (0-0)
2021-11-19	Youngstown St	A	Non-Conference	L	75-79	1-3 (0-0)
2021-11-20	Niagara	N	Non-Conference	W	76-67	2-3 (0-0)
2021-11-21	SIUE	N	Non-Conference	W	86-73	3-3 (0-0)
2021-11-27	Seattle	A	Non-Conference	L	64-81	3-4 (0-0)
2021-12-02	Crown College	H	Non-D1	W	73-53	4-4 (0-0)
2021-12-05	Drake	A	Non-Conference	L	64-74	4-5 (0-0)
2021-12-11	Montana State	H	Non-Conference	L	65-72	4-6 (0-0)
2021-12-14	Northland College	H	Non-D1	W	109-50	5-6 (0-0)
2021-12-20	Omaha	A	Conference	W	80-73	6-6 (1-0)
2021-12-22	Denver	A	Conference	L	74-75	6-7 (1-1)
2021-12-29	North Central (MN)	H	Non-D1	W	97-45	7-7 (1-1)
2022-01-01	W Illinois	H	Conference	W	89-66	8-7 (2-1)
2022-01-06	Oral Roberts	H	Conference	L	66-81	8-8 (2-2)
2022-01-08	UM Kansas City	H	Conference	-	-	-
2022-01-13	North Dakota St	A	Conference	-	-	-
2022-01-15	North Dakota	A	Conference	-	-	-
2022-01-20	South Dakota St	H	Conference	L	77-92	8-9 (2-3)
2022-01-22	South Dakota	H	Conference	L	79-90	8-10 (2-4)
2022-01-25	North Dakota St	A	Conference	L	56-77	8-11 (2-5)
2022-01-29	W Illinois	A	Conference	L	52-81	8-12 (2-6)
2022-02-03	UM Kansas City	A	Conference	L	72-81	8-13 (2-7)
2022-02-05	Oral Roberts	A	Conference	L	66-88	8-14 (2-8)
2022-02-08	UM Kansas City	H	Conference	L	67-76	8-15 (2-9)
2022-02-10	North Dakota	H	Conference	L	70-78	8-16 (2-10)
2022-02-12	North Dakota St	H	Conference	L	64-75	8-17 (2-11)
2022-02-17	South Dakota	A	Conference	L	60-81	8-18 (2-12)
2022-02-19	South Dakota St	A	Conference	L	60-79	8-19 (2-13)
2022-02-22	North Dakota	A	Conference	W	84-74	9-19 (3-13)
2022-02-24	Denver	H	Conference	L	80-91	9-20 (3-14)
2022-02-26	Omaha	H	Conference	W	95-74	10-20 (4-14)
2022-11-07	Creighton	A	Non-Conference	L	60-72	0-1 (0-0)
2022-11-11	Chicago State	H	Non-Conference	W	83-61	1-1 (0-0)
2022-11-13	St Francis (BKN)	H	Non-Conference	W	84-48	2-1 (0-0)
2022-11-17	Montana	N	Non-Conference	L	59-78	2-2 (0-0)
2022-11-18	Troy	N	Non-Conference	W	78-76	3-2 (0-0)
2022-11-19	Merrimack	N	Non-Conference	W	72-61	4-2 (0-0)
2022-11-23	Milwaukee	A	Non-Conference	W	76-72	5-2 (0-0)
2022-11-26	Utah	A	Non-Conference	L	66-95	5-3 (0-0)
2022-11-29	North Central (MN)	H	Non-D1	W	111-63	6-3 (0-0)
2022-12-03	Crown College	H	Non-D1	W	91-56	7-3 (0-0)
2022-12-08	Montana State	A	Non-Conference	L	65-82	7-4 (0-0)
2022-12-10	Idaho State	A	Non-Conference	W	76-70	8-4 (0-0)
2022-12-13	Green Bay	H	Non-Conference	W	82-61	9-4 (0-0)
2022-12-19	North Dakota	H	Conference	W	75-62	10-4 (1-0)
2022-12-21	North Dakota St	H	Conference	W	78-68	11-4 (2-0)
2022-12-29	South Dakota	A	Conference	L	84-92	11-5 (2-1)
2022-12-31	South Dakota St	A	Conference	L	64-71	11-6 (2-2)
2023-01-05	Denver	H	Conference	W	81-71	12-6 (3-2)
2023-01-07	Omaha	H	Conference	W	80-68	13-6 (4-2)
2023-01-12	UM Kansas City	A	Conference	L	60-81	13-7 (4-3)
2023-01-14	Oral Roberts	A	Conference	L	69-81	13-8 (4-4)
2023-01-21	W Illinois	A	Conference	L	56-60	13-9 (4-5)
2023-01-26	South Dakota St	H	Conference	W	60-54	14-9 (5-5)
2023-01-28	South Dakota	H	Conference	L	67-81	14-10 (5-6)
2023-02-02	Omaha	A	Conference	W	89-83	15-10 (6-6)
2023-02-04	Denver	A	Conference	W	68-57	16-10 (7-6)
2023-02-09	Oral Roberts	H	Conference	L	88-95	16-11 (7-7)
2023-02-11	UM Kansas City	H	Conference	W	73-43	17-11 (8-7)
2023-02-18	W Illinois	H	Conference	W	82-69	18-11 (9-7)
2023-02-23	North Dakota St	A	Conference	L	64-73	18-12 (9-8)
2023-02-25	North Dakota	A	Conference	L	74-82	18-13 (9-9)
2023-03-05	W Illinois	N	Conference Tournament	W	67-60	19-13 (9-9)
2023-03-06	Oral Roberts	N	Conference Tournament	L	65-70	19-14 (9-9)
2023-11-06	Cal	A	Non-Conference	L	66-71	0-1 (0-0)
2023-11-10	Idaho State	H	Non-Conference	W	54-53	1-1 (0-0)
2023-11-12	North Central (MN)	H	Non-D1	W	100-54	2-1 (0-0)
2023-11-17	Cal Poly	N	Non-Conference	L	60-61	2-2 (0-0)
2023-11-18	California Baptist	A	Non-Conference	L	62-66	2-3 (0-0)
2023-11-19	Portland State	N	Non-Conference	W	76-70	3-3 (0-0)
2023-11-25	Green Bay	A	Non-Conference	L	51-64	3-4 (0-0)
2023-12-01	W Michigan	A	Non-Conference	W	65-51	4-4 (0-0)
2023-12-06	Milwaukee	H	Non-Conference	W	75-71	5-4 (0-0)
2023-12-10	Chicago State	A	Non-Conference	W	66-50	6-4 (0-0)
2023-12-14	Marquette	A	Non-Conference	L	79-84	6-5 (0-0)
2023-12-17	Crown College	H	Non-D1	W	85-66	7-5 (0-0)
2023-12-21	University of Wisconsin River Falls	H	Non-D1	W	104-51	8-5 (0-0)
2023-12-29	North Dakota	A	Conference	W	70-45	9-5 (1-0)
2023-12-31	UM Kansas City	H	Conference	W	77-56	10-5 (2-0)
2024-01-03	Idaho	A	Non-Conference	W	75-67	11-5 (2-0)
2024-01-06	Sacramento St	H	Non-Conference	W	63-50	12-5 (2-0)
2024-01-11	South Dakota St	H	Conference	L	80-81	12-6 (2-1)
2024-01-13	Oral Roberts	A	Conference	W	87-76	13-6 (3-1)
2024-01-18	South Dakota	A	Conference	L	73-74	13-7 (3-2)
2024-01-25	North Dakota St	H	Conference	W	79-66	14-7 (4-2)
2024-01-27	North Dakota	H	Conference	L	64-74	14-8 (4-3)
2024-02-01	Omaha	A	Conference	L	65-69	14-9 (4-4)
2024-02-03	UM Kansas City	A	Conference	W	71-56	15-9 (5-4)
2024-02-08	Oral Roberts	H	Conference	W	85-63	16-9 (6-4)
2024-02-10	Denver	A	Conference	L	77-94	16-10 (6-5)
2024-02-17	South Dakota	H	Conference	W	83-80	17-10 (7-5)
2024-02-22	North Dakota St	A	Conference	L	50-64	17-11 (7-6)
2024-02-24	South Dakota St	A	Conference	L	72-77	17-12 (7-7)
2024-02-29	Omaha	H	Conference	W	88-61	18-12 (8-7)
2024-03-02	Denver	H	Conference	W	83-58	19-12 (9-7)
2024-03-10	North Dakota St	N	Conference Tournament	W	68-58	20-12 (9-7)
2024-03-11	South Dakota St	N	Conference Tournament	L	49-59	20-13 (9-7)
2024-11-04	North Central (MN)	H	Non-D1	W	96-71	1-0 (0-0)
2024-11-08	Green Bay	A	Non-Conference	W	90-76	2-0 (0-0)
2024-11-10	Oklahoma State	A	Non-Conference	L	71-80	2-1 (0-0)
2024-11-15	St. Norbert	H	Non-D1	W	102-54	3-1 (0-0)
2024-11-17	Arizona State	A	Non-Conference	L	66-81	3-2 (0-0)
2024-11-22	Wofford	N	Non-Conference	L	73-81	3-3 (0-0)
2024-11-23	Portland State	N	Non-Conference	W	91-65	4-3 (0-0)
2024-11-24	Milwaukee	A	Non-Conference	L	65-69	4-4 (0-0)
2024-12-02	Chicago State	H	Non-Conference	W	98-76	5-4 (0-0)
2024-12-04	N Colorado	A	Non-Conference	W	87-75	6-4 (0-0)
2024-12-07	Montana	H	Non-Conference	W	88-81	7-4 (0-0)
2024-12-13	W Michigan	H	Non-Conference	W	77-71	8-4 (0-0)
2024-12-15	Crown College	H	Non-D1	W	100-61	9-4 (0-0)
2024-12-21	Bowling Green	A	Non-Conference	W	93-68	10-4 (0-0)
2024-12-29	UC Riverside	A	Non-Conference	L	79-81	10-5 (0-0)
2025-01-02	North Dakota St	A	Conference	W	89-85	11-5 (1-0)
2025-01-04	North Dakota	A	Conference	W	88-80	12-5 (2-0)
2025-01-08	South Dakota St	H	Conference	W	73-72	13-5 (3-0)
2025-01-11	South Dakota	H	Conference	W	119-104	14-5 (4-0)
2025-01-18	Denver	H	Conference	W	74-62	15-5 (5-0)
2025-01-23	Omaha	A	Conference	L	78-89	15-6 (5-1)
2025-01-25	UM Kansas City	A	Conference	W	68-65	16-6 (6-1)
2025-01-29	Oral Roberts	H	Conference	W	86-71	17-6 (7-1)
2025-02-02	North Dakota St	H	Conference	W	79-62	18-6 (8-1)
2025-02-06	South Dakota St	A	Conference	L	86-102	18-7 (8-2)
2025-02-08	Denver	A	Conference	W	79-76	19-7 (9-2)
2025-02-15	Omaha	H	Conference	W	95-84	20-7 (10-2)
2025-02-19	South Dakota	A	Conference	L	80-85	20-8 (10-3)
2025-02-22	Oral Roberts	A	Conference	L	66-71	20-9 (10-4)
2025-02-27	North Dakota	H	Conference	W	86-71	21-9 (11-4)
2025-03-01	UM Kansas City	H	Conference	W	65-59	22-9 (12-4)
2025-03-06	Denver	N	Conference Tournament	W	80-62	23-9 (12-4)
2025-03-08	North Dakota	N	Conference Tournament	W	85-69	24-9 (12-4)
2025-03-09	Omaha	N	Conference Tournament	L	75-85	24-10 (12-4)
2025-11-03	Saint Mary's	A	Non-Conference	L	58-84	0-1 (0-0)
2025-11-08	Army	H	Non-Conference	W	83-76	1-1 (0-0)
2025-11-10	Washington St	A	Non-Conference	L	71-81	1-2 (0-0)
2025-11-13	Green Bay	H	Non-Conference	W	80-61	2-2 (0-0)
2025-11-15	SE Missouri St	A	Non-Conference	W	84-72	3-2 (0-0)
2025-11-21	N Colorado	N	Non-Conference	W	73-72	4-2 (0-0)
2025-11-22	CSU Fullerton	N	Non-Conference	L	80-88	4-3 (0-0)
2025-11-23	Portland	A	Non-Conference	W	76-66	5-3 (0-0)
2025-11-29	Lawrence University	H	Non-D1	W	87-52	6-3 (0-0)
2025-12-03	Montana State	A	Non-Conference	L	74-82	6-4 (0-0)
2025-12-07	Weber State	H	Non-Conference	W	88-65	7-4 (0-0)
2025-12-11	Saint John's (MN)	H	Non-D1	W	80-56	8-4 (0-0)
2025-12-13	UNC Asheville	A	Non-Conference	W	80-59	9-4 (0-0)
2025-12-20	UC Riverside	H	Non-Conference	W	92-78	10-4 (0-0)
2025-12-28	North Central (MN)	H	Non-D1	W	105-59	11-4 (0-0)
2026-01-04	Denver	H	Conference	W	92-88	12-4 (1-0)
2026-01-07	South Dakota	H	Conference	W	99-86	13-4 (2-0)
2026-01-10	Oral Roberts	A	Conference	W	82-71	14-4 (3-0)
2026-01-15	North Dakota	A	Conference	W	91-80	15-4 (4-0)
2026-01-17	North Dakota St	A	Conference	L	65-68	15-5 (4-1)
2026-01-22	South Dakota St	H	Conference	W	74-69	16-5 (5-1)
2026-01-24	South Dakota	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	North Dakota	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-01	Kansas City	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-04	South Dakota State	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-07	Oral Roberts	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-12	Omaha	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	Kansas City	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Denver	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	North Dakota State	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	Omaha	H	Conference	-	-	-

St. Thomas - Minnesota Offense

Metric	St. Thomas - Minnesota	Opponent	Metric

St. Thomas - Minnesota Defense

Metric	St. Thomas - Minnesota	Opponent	Metric

Model Predictions

Model	St. Thomas - Minnesota	Opponent	Predicted Score	Spread	Result	MAE

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Offense: Vitals

Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.585
Rank: 1 of 9 in SUM, 8 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 9 in SUM, 75 of 365 in D1

8th

Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.136
Rank: 1 of 9 in SUM, 34 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 9 of 9 in SUM, 356 of 365 in D1

34th

Off Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 17.110
Rank: 9 of 9 in SUM, 364 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 9 in SUM, 95 of 365 in D1

364th

FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.371
Rank: 3 of 9 in SUM, 157 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 9 in SUM, 20 of 365 in D1

157th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.529
Rank: 3 of 9 in SUM, 250 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 9 in SUM, 121 of 365 in D1

250th

Opp Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.181
Rank: 3 of 9 in SUM, 61 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 5 of 9 in SUM, 215 of 365 in D1

61st

Def Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 74.290
Rank: 1 of 9 in SUM, 67 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 9 in SUM, 170 of 365 in D1

67th

Opp FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.325
Rank: 3 of 9 in SUM, 94 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 6 of 9 in SUM, 136 of 365 in D1

94th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 113.46

118th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 40.4%

60th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 80.7%

303rd

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 50.5%

19th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 54.7%

304th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.7%

125th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 44.3%

317th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 62.9%

3rd

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 45.3%

62nd

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.7%

91st

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.4%

103rd

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 36.0%

77th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 37.1%

157th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.5%

210th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.6%

182nd

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 70.0%

246th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 57.6%

68th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 6.5%

11th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.1%

19th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.4%

246th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 13.6%

34th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 17.1%

364th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 70.71

183rd

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.14

71st

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.59

8th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 110.09

170th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.8%

168th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 80.4%

78th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 45.9%

241st

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 59.5%

154th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.5%

163rd

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 47.8%

95th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 53.6%

244th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 40.5%

212th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.4%

208th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.6%

167th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 34.7%

230th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 32.5%

94th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.3%

93rd

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.8%

68th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 72.9%

236th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 53.7%

217th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.2%

30th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.5%

303rd

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.0%

58th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 18.1%

61st

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 74.3%

67th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.73

125th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.04

142nd

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.53

250th