College Basketball Analytics, Insights, and Trends
| Model | Score | Rank |
|---|---|---|
| Adj EM | -22.96 | 342 |
| Elo | 1320.29 | 355 |
| RPI | 0.436 | 298 |
The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).
| Date | Opponent | Site | Type | Result | Score | Record (Conf) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-01-24 | Northwestern State | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-26 | Lamar | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| Date | Opponent | Site | Type | Result | Score | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022-11-07 | SMU | A | Non-Conference | L | 60-77 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-11 | N Colorado | A | Non-Conference | L | 77-80 | 0-2 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-14 | Air Force | A | Non-Conference | W | 73-69 | 1-2 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-18 | UNC Asheville | N | Non-Conference | L | 64-72 | 1-3 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-19 | Georgia State | A | Non-Conference | L | 53-57 | 1-4 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-20 | E Kentucky | N | Non-Conference | W | 75-61 | 2-4 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-28 | Arlington Baptist | H | Non-D1 | W | 101-46 | 3-4 (0-0) |
| 2022-11-30 | Hawai'i | A | Non-Conference | W | 53-51 | 4-4 (0-0) |
| 2022-12-04 | Denver | A | Non-Conference | L | 75-84 | 4-5 (0-0) |
| 2022-12-06 | Wyoming | A | Non-Conference | L | 76-91 | 4-6 (0-0) |
| 2022-12-10 | Abil Christian | A | Non-Conference | L | 64-83 | 4-7 (0-0) |
| 2022-12-19 | Fort Wayne | A | Non-Conference | L | 68-85 | 4-8 (0-0) |
| 2022-12-20 | IUPUI | N | Non-Conference | L | 52-62 | 4-9 (0-0) |
| 2022-12-27 | Texas | A | Non-Conference | L | 72-97 | 4-10 (0-0) |
| 2022-12-31 | Incarnate Word | H | Conference | W | 82-74 | 5-10 (1-0) |
| 2023-01-05 | Nicholls | H | Conference | L | 63-66 | 5-11 (1-1) |
| 2023-01-07 | McNeese | A | Conference | W | 82-80 | 6-11 (2-1) |
| 2023-01-12 | Houston Baptist | A | Conference | L | 59-68 | 6-12 (2-2) |
| 2023-01-14 | Lamar | H | Conference | W | 81-66 | 7-12 (3-2) |
| 2023-01-19 | New Orleans | A | Conference | W | 63-58 | 8-12 (4-2) |
| 2023-01-21 | SE Louisiana | A | Conference | L | 73-79 | 8-13 (4-3) |
| 2023-01-26 | Lamar | A | Conference | W | 62-57 | 9-13 (5-3) |
| 2023-01-28 | Houston Baptist | H | Conference | W | 77-76 | 10-13 (6-3) |
| 2023-02-04 | McNeese | H | Conference | W | 60-58 | 11-13 (7-3) |
| 2023-02-09 | Northwestern St | H | Conference | L | 82-88 | 11-14 (7-4) |
| 2023-02-11 | Northwestern St | A | Conference | L | 64-72 | 11-15 (7-5) |
| 2023-02-16 | New Orleans | H | Conference | L | 78-84 | 11-16 (7-6) |
| 2023-02-18 | SE Louisiana | H | Conference | L | 76-78 | 11-17 (7-7) |
| 2023-02-20 | Nicholls | A | Conference | W | 72-71 | 12-17 (8-7) |
| 2023-02-23 | Texas A&M-CC | A | Conference | W | 84-80 | 13-17 (9-7) |
| 2023-02-25 | Incarnate Word | A | Conference | L | 75-79 | 13-18 (9-8) |
| 2023-03-01 | Texas A&M-CC | H | Conference | L | 88-93 | 13-19 (9-9) |
| 2023-03-05 | McNeese | N | Conference Tournament | L | 78-79 | 13-20 (9-9) |
| 2023-11-06 | Texas A&M | A | Non-Conference | L | 46-78 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-08 | Texas Tech | A | Non-Conference | L | 46-73 | 0-2 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-10 | Kentucky | A | Non-Conference | L | 61-81 | 0-3 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-12 | Fort Wayne | A | Non-Conference | L | 64-86 | 0-4 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-15 | Science & Arts (OK) | H | Non-D1 | W | 113-63 | 1-4 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-17 | Saint Joe's | A | Non-Conference | W | 57-54 | 2-4 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-20 | Stonehill | H | Non-Conference | W | 97-86 | 3-4 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-26 | Denver | H | Non-Conference | L | 61-71 | 3-5 (0-0) |
| 2023-11-29 | Dallas Christian | H | Non-D1 | W | 100-48 | 4-5 (0-0) |
| 2023-12-03 | SMU | A | Non-Conference | L | 47-90 | 4-6 (0-0) |
| 2023-12-11 | N Colorado | H | Non-Conference | W | 101-99 | 5-6 (0-0) |
| 2023-12-18 | Arlington Baptist | H | Non-D1 | W | 130-53 | 6-6 (0-0) |
| 2024-01-01 | TCU | A | Non-Conference | L | 42-77 | 6-7 (0-0) |
| 2024-01-06 | McNeese | H | Conference | L | 67-73 | 6-8 (0-1) |
| 2024-01-08 | New Orleans | A | Conference | L | 85-88 | 6-9 (0-2) |
| 2024-01-13 | Houston Baptist | H | Conference | L | 65-69 | 6-10 (0-3) |
| 2024-01-20 | SE Louisiana | A | Conference | W | 68-52 | 7-10 (1-3) |
| 2024-01-22 | Lamar | A | Conference | L | 65-76 | 7-11 (1-4) |
| 2024-01-27 | Nicholls | H | Conference | L | 84-87 | 7-12 (1-5) |
| 2024-01-29 | Texas A&M-CC | H | Conference | L | 54-69 | 7-13 (1-6) |
| 2024-01-31 | Incarnate Word | H | Conference | W | 71-66 | 8-13 (2-6) |
| 2024-02-03 | Northwestern St | A | Conference | L | 57-70 | 8-14 (2-7) |
| 2024-02-05 | McNeese | A | Conference | L | 51-77 | 8-15 (2-8) |
| 2024-02-10 | New Orleans | H | Conference | W | 89-83 | 9-15 (3-8) |
| 2024-02-12 | SE Louisiana | H | Conference | L | 77-79 | 9-16 (3-9) |
| 2024-02-17 | Texas A&M-CC | A | Conference | L | 63-86 | 9-17 (3-10) |
| 2024-02-19 | Incarnate Word | A | Conference | W | 76-72 | 10-17 (4-10) |
| 2024-02-24 | Nicholls | A | Conference | L | 70-85 | 10-18 (4-11) |
| 2024-03-02 | Houston Baptist | A | Conference | W | 98-85 | 11-18 (5-11) |
| 2024-03-04 | Lamar | H | Conference | L | 53-70 | 11-19 (5-12) |
| 2024-03-06 | Northwestern St | H | Conference | W | 83-80 | 12-19 (6-12) |
| 2024-03-10 | Northwestern St | N | Conference Tournament | W | 69-64 | 13-19 (6-12) |
| 2024-03-11 | Nicholls | N | Conference Tournament | L | 51-72 | 13-20 (6-12) |
| 2024-11-04 | Iowa | A | Non-Conference | L | 67-89 | 0-1 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-06 | South Dakota | A | Non-Conference | L | 83-91 | 0-2 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-08 | Texas A&M | A | Non-Conference | L | 55-87 | 0-3 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-13 | Southern | H | Non-Conference | W | 70-68 | 1-3 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-19 | UConn | A | Non-Conference | L | 46-81 | 1-4 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-21 | Oklahoma | A | Non-Conference | L | 56-84 | 1-5 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-25 | Stonehill | A | Non-Conference | L | 65-67 | 1-6 (0-0) |
| 2024-11-30 | Fort Wayne | H | Non-Conference | L | 57-77 | 1-7 (0-0) |
| 2024-12-05 | Houston Baptist | A | Conference | L | 79-83 | 1-8 (0-1) |
| 2024-12-07 | Incarnate Word | A | Conference | L | 53-65 | 1-9 (0-2) |
| 2024-12-15 | South Alabama | H | Non-Conference | L | 72-81 | 1-10 (0-2) |
| 2024-12-18 | Abil Christian | H | Non-Conference | W | 68-67 | 2-10 (0-2) |
| 2024-12-21 | USF | A | Non-Conference | L | 62-88 | 2-11 (0-2) |
| 2025-01-04 | McNeese | H | Conference | L | 56-75 | 2-12 (0-3) |
| 2025-01-06 | Nicholls | H | Conference | L | 61-83 | 2-13 (0-4) |
| 2025-01-11 | Northwestern St | A | Conference | L | 67-75 | 2-14 (0-5) |
| 2025-01-13 | UT Rio Grande | A | Conference | L | 55-57 | 2-15 (0-6) |
| 2025-01-18 | New Orleans | H | Conference | L | 73-82 | 2-16 (0-7) |
| 2025-01-20 | SE Louisiana | H | Conference | L | 68-76 | 2-17 (0-8) |
| 2025-01-25 | Lamar | A | Conference | L | 58-61 | 2-18 (0-9) |
| 2025-01-27 | SF Austin | A | Conference | L | 72-79 | 2-19 (0-10) |
| 2025-02-01 | Northwestern St | H | Conference | W | 72-50 | 3-19 (1-10) |
| 2025-02-03 | Texas A&M-CC | H | Conference | L | 66-78 | 3-20 (1-11) |
| 2025-02-08 | Nicholls | A | Conference | L | 65-81 | 3-21 (1-12) |
| 2025-02-10 | McNeese | A | Conference | L | 51-67 | 3-22 (1-13) |
| 2025-02-15 | Lamar | H | Conference | L | 55-65 | 3-23 (1-14) |
| 2025-02-17 | SF Austin | H | Conference | L | 74-76 | 3-24 (1-15) |
| 2025-02-22 | SE Louisiana | A | Conference | L | 65-83 | 3-25 (1-16) |
| 2025-02-24 | New Orleans | A | Conference | W | 73-71 | 4-25 (2-16) |
| 2025-03-01 | Incarnate Word | H | Conference | L | 68-75 | 4-26 (2-17) |
| 2025-03-03 | Houston Baptist | H | Conference | W | 63-59 | 5-26 (3-17) |
| 2025-11-03 | Arlington Baptist | H | Non-D1 | W | 119-60 | 1-0 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-05 | New Mexico | A | Non-Conference | L | 54-76 | 1-1 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-10 | Hawai'i | A | Non-Conference | L | 74-100 | 1-2 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-14 | Rice | A | Non-Conference | L | 64-71 | 1-3 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-19 | Dallas Christian | H | Non-D1 | W | 115-44 | 2-3 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-24 | Fair Dickinson | A | Non-Conference | W | 70-65 | 3-3 (0-0) |
| 2025-11-25 | Army | N | Non-Conference | W | 84-67 | 4-3 (0-0) |
| 2025-12-05 | UConn | A | Non-Conference | L | 59-83 | 4-4 (0-0) |
| 2025-12-07 | Cent Arkansas | H | Non-Conference | W | 75-68 | 5-4 (0-0) |
| 2025-12-12 | McNeese | A | Conference | L | 66-102 | 5-5 (0-1) |
| 2025-12-15 | SE Louisiana | A | Conference | W | 70-69 | 6-5 (1-1) |
| 2025-12-21 | Texas A&M | A | Non-Conference | L | 77-118 | 6-6 (1-1) |
| 2025-12-29 | SF Austin | H | Conference | L | 48-75 | 6-7 (1-2) |
| 2025-12-31 | Lamar | H | Conference | L | 62-69 | 6-8 (1-3) |
| 2026-01-03 | Nicholls | A | Conference | L | 58-80 | 6-9 (1-4) |
| 2026-01-05 | New Orleans | A | Conference | L | 73-83 | 6-10 (1-5) |
| 2026-01-10 | UT Rio Grande | H | Conference | W | 77-69 | 7-10 (2-5) |
| 2026-01-12 | Texas A&M-CC | H | Conference | L | 50-61 | 7-11 (2-6) |
| 2026-01-17 | Houston Baptist | A | Conference | L | 70-81 | 7-12 (2-7) |
| 2026-01-19 | Incarnate Word | A | Conference | W | 80-58 | 8-12 (3-7) |
| 2026-01-24 | Northwestern State | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-26 | Lamar | A | Conference | - | - | - |
| 2026-01-27 | Lamar | A | Conference | L | 61-82 | 8-13 (3-8) |
| 2026-01-31 | Nicholls | H | Conference | L | 68-72 | 8-14 (3-9) |
| 2026-02-02 | New Orleans | H | Conference | L | 85-94 | 8-15 (3-10) |
| 2026-02-04 | Northwestern St | A | Conference | W | 74-68 | 9-15 (4-10) |
| 2026-02-07 | Northwestern St | H | Conference | W | 52-48 | 10-15 (5-10) |
| 2026-02-09 | SF Austin | A | Conference | L | 70-74 | 10-16 (5-11) |
| 2026-02-14 | McNeese | H | Conference | L | 54-97 | 10-17 (5-12) |
| 2026-02-16 | SE Louisiana | H | Conference | W | 70-53 | 11-17 (6-12) |
| 2026-02-21 | Incarnate Word | H | Conference | L | 73-82 | 11-18 (6-13) |
| 2026-02-23 | Houston Baptist | H | Conference | L | 68-69 | 11-19 (6-14) |
| 2026-02-28 | UT Rio Grande | A | Conference | L | 55-63 | 11-20 (6-15) |
| 2026-03-02 | Texas A&M-CC | A | Conference | L | 71-84 | 11-21 (6-16) |
| Metric | Texas A&M-Commerce | Opponent | Metric |
|---|
| Metric | Texas A&M-Commerce | Opponent | Metric |
|---|
| Model | Texas A&M-Commerce | Opponent | Predicted Score | Spread | Result | MAE |
|---|