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Stonehill

Model	Score	Rank
Adj EM	-18.22	310
Elo	1367.87	345
RPI	0.35	354

Updated through 2025-12-08

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend

About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record (Conf)
2025-12-12	Vermont State - Johnson	H	Non-D1	-	-	-
2025-12-17	New Hampshire	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-22	Syracuse	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-02	New Haven	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-04	Wagner	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-08	Central Connecticut	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-10	Chicago State	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-17	Mercyhurst	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-19	Saint Francis	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-23	Long Island University	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-25	Central Connecticut	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	Fairleigh Dickinson	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-31	Le Moyne	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-05	Fairleigh Dickinson	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-07	Long Island University	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-12	Chicago State	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	Wagner	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-19	New Haven	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Le Moyne	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	Saint Francis	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	Mercyhurst	H	Conference	-	-	-

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record
2022-11-07	UConn	A	Non-Conference	L	54-85	0-1 (0-0)
2022-11-10	Quinnipiac	H	Non-Conference	L	95-102	0-2 (0-0)
2022-11-12	Army	A	Non-Conference	W	82-77	1-2 (0-0)
2022-11-15	Providence	A	Non-Conference	L	76-100	1-3 (0-0)
2022-11-19	Holy Cross	N	Non-Conference	W	81-79	2-3 (0-0)
2022-11-21	UIC	N	Non-Conference	L	71-77	2-4 (0-0)
2022-11-22	Fordham	A	Non-Conference	L	60-71	2-5 (0-0)
2022-11-27	UMass Lowell	A	Non-Conference	L	59-73	2-6 (0-0)
2022-11-30	Eastern Nazarene	H	Non-D1	W	92-45	3-6 (0-0)
2022-12-03	Binghamton	A	Non-Conference	W	69-66	4-6 (0-0)
2022-12-07	Rider	H	Non-Conference	L	67-78	4-7 (0-0)
2022-12-13	Boston College	A	Non-Conference	L	56-63	4-8 (0-0)
2022-12-19	Bradley	A	Non-Conference	L	50-79	4-9 (0-0)
2022-12-21	Valparaiso	A	Non-Conference	L	67-77	4-10 (0-0)
2022-12-29	Sacred Heart	A	Conference	W	74-67	5-10 (1-0)
2022-12-31	St Francis (PA)	A	Conference	L	72-73	5-11 (1-1)
2023-01-05	Wagner	H	Conference	W	62-58	6-11 (2-1)
2023-01-07	Cent Conn St	H	Conference	W	51-49	7-11 (3-1)
2023-01-14	Merrimack	H	Conference	L	47-59	7-12 (3-2)
2023-01-16	Fair Dickinson	H	Conference	L	57-65	7-13 (3-3)
2023-01-20	Brooklyn	A	Conference	W	73-66	8-13 (4-3)
2023-01-22	Fair Dickinson	A	Conference	W	70-59	9-13 (5-3)
2023-01-25	Hartford	A	Non-D1	L	56-73	9-14 (5-3)
2023-01-28	Sacred Heart	H	Conference	W	82-81	10-14 (6-3)
2023-02-02	St Francis (PA)	H	Conference	W	74-61	11-14 (7-3)
2023-02-04	St Francis (BKN)	A	Conference	W	65-59	12-14 (8-3)
2023-02-09	Merrimack	A	Conference	L	43-56	12-15 (8-4)
2023-02-11	St Francis (BKN)	H	Conference	W	62-51	13-15 (9-4)
2023-02-16	Brooklyn	H	Conference	W	75-60	14-15 (10-4)
2023-02-18	Cent Conn St	A	Conference	L	90-94	14-16 (10-5)
2023-02-23	Wagner	A	Conference	L	44-54	14-17 (10-6)
2023-11-06	G Washington	A	Non-Conference	L	44-89	0-1 (0-0)
2023-11-09	Army	H	Non-Conference	W	57-44	1-1 (0-0)
2023-11-11	UConn	A	Non-Conference	L	67-107	1-2 (0-0)
2023-11-14	Saint Joe's	A	Non-Conference	L	56-100	1-3 (0-0)
2023-11-17	Kentucky	A	Non-Conference	L	67-101	1-4 (0-0)
2023-11-20	Texas A&M-Commerce	A	Non-Conference	L	86-97	1-5 (0-0)
2023-11-26	Quinnipiac	A	Non-Conference	L	69-80	1-6 (0-0)
2023-11-29	UMass Lowell	H	Non-Conference	L	74-80	1-7 (0-0)
2023-12-02	Binghamton	H	Non-Conference	L	64-79	1-8 (0-0)
2023-12-06	Stony Brook	A	Non-Conference	L	63-81	1-9 (0-0)
2023-12-08	Rider	A	Non-Conference	L	56-73	1-10 (0-0)
2023-12-11	UNH	A	Non-Conference	L	62-75	1-11 (0-0)
2023-12-17	Hartford	H	Non-D1	W	71-44	2-11 (0-0)
2023-12-21	Miami	A	Non-Conference	L	59-97	2-12 (0-0)
2023-12-30	Rutgers	A	Non-Conference	L	58-59	2-13 (0-0)
2024-01-04	Cent Conn St	H	Conference	L	59-74	2-14 (0-1)
2024-01-06	Brooklyn	H	Conference	L	68-73	2-15 (0-2)
2024-01-13	Fair Dickinson	A	Conference	L	74-81	2-16 (0-3)
2024-01-15	Wagner	A	Conference	L	54-64	2-17 (0-4)
2024-01-19	Fair Dickinson	H	Conference	L	69-76	2-18 (0-5)
2024-01-21	Merrimack	A	Conference	L	47-63	2-19 (0-6)
2024-01-25	Brooklyn	A	Conference	L	60-63	2-20 (0-7)
2024-02-01	Sacred Heart	A	Conference	L	72-77	2-21 (0-8)
2024-02-03	Wagner	H	Conference	W	71-61	3-21 (1-8)
2024-02-08	Le Moyne	H	Conference	L	57-88	3-22 (1-9)
2024-02-10	St Francis (PA)	A	Conference	L	63-72	3-23 (1-10)
2024-02-15	Merrimack	H	Conference	L	63-66	3-24 (1-11)
2024-02-17	Le Moyne	A	Conference	L	67-75	3-25 (1-12)
2024-02-24	St Francis (PA)	H	Conference	W	72-63	4-25 (2-12)
2024-02-29	Sacred Heart	H	Conference	L	51-79	4-26 (2-13)
2024-03-02	Cent Conn St	A	Conference	L	67-79	4-27 (2-14)
2024-11-04	Framingham State	H	Non-D1	W	81-62	1-0 (0-0)
2024-11-06	Notre Dame	A	Non-Conference	L	60-89	1-1 (0-0)
2024-11-09	Providence	A	Non-Conference	L	49-76	1-2 (0-0)
2024-11-14	Robert Morris	A	Non-Conference	L	51-63	1-3 (0-0)
2024-11-15	New Orleans	N	Non-Conference	W	80-54	2-3 (0-0)
2024-11-17	Lindenwood	N	Non-Conference	L	74-75	2-4 (0-0)
2024-11-21	Bryant	N	Conference Tournament	W	67-66	3-4 (0-0)
2024-11-25	Texas A&M-Commerce	H	Non-Conference	W	67-65	4-4 (0-0)
2024-11-27	Marquette	A	Non-Conference	L	59-94	4-5 (0-0)
2024-12-01	Quinnipiac	H	Non-Conference	W	88-74	5-5 (0-0)
2024-12-11	Lesley University	H	Non-D1	W	97-53	6-5 (0-0)
2024-12-15	Boston College	A	Non-Conference	L	69-73	6-6 (0-0)
2024-12-18	UMass Lowell	A	Non-Conference	L	67-78	6-7 (0-0)
2024-12-22	UNH	H	Non-Conference	W	90-83	7-7 (0-0)
2024-12-29	Lafayette	A	Non-Conference	W	70-65	8-7 (0-0)
2025-01-03	Mercyhurst	A	Conference	L	69-76	8-8 (0-1)
2025-01-05	St Francis (PA)	A	Conference	W	64-60	9-8 (1-1)
2025-01-10	Brooklyn	H	Conference	L	60-70	9-9 (1-2)
2025-01-12	Chicago State	A	Conference	W	68-52	10-9 (2-2)
2025-01-20	Le Moyne	A	Conference	L	72-73	10-10 (2-3)
2025-01-24	Chicago State	H	Conference	W	75-73	11-10 (3-3)
2025-01-26	Fair Dickinson	H	Conference	L	54-65	11-11 (3-4)
2025-01-30	Wagner	H	Conference	W	73-61	12-11 (4-4)
2025-02-01	Cent Conn St	H	Conference	L	63-71	12-12 (4-5)
2025-02-08	Brooklyn	A	Conference	L	59-62	12-13 (4-6)
2025-02-13	St Francis (PA)	H	Conference	W	79-74	13-13 (5-6)
2025-02-15	Mercyhurst	H	Conference	W	85-73	14-13 (6-6)
2025-02-20	Wagner	A	Conference	L	57-63	14-14 (6-7)
2025-02-22	Cent Conn St	A	Conference	L	41-67	14-15 (6-8)
2025-02-27	Fair Dickinson	A	Conference	L	69-82	14-16 (6-9)
2025-03-01	Le Moyne	H	Conference	W	85-79	15-16 (7-9)
2025-03-05	Fair Dickinson	N	Conference Tournament	L	56-71	15-17 (7-9)
2025-11-03	Thomas (ME)	H	Non-D1	W	100-48	1-0 (0-0)
2025-11-07	DePaul	A	Non-Conference	L	64-72	1-1 (0-0)
2025-11-11	URI	A	Non-Conference	L	57-80	1-2 (0-0)
2025-11-14	Fairfield	A	Non-Conference	L	71-73	1-3 (0-0)
2025-11-15	Loyola Maryland	N	Non-Conference	L	63-74	1-4 (0-0)
2025-11-17	Iowa State	A	Non-Conference	L	57-96	1-5 (0-0)
2025-11-26	UMass Lowell	H	Non-Conference	L	64-75	1-6 (0-0)
2025-11-30	Quinnipiac	A	Non-Conference	L	62-76	1-7 (0-0)
2025-12-02	Bryant	A	Non-Conference	L	65-77	1-8 (0-0)
2025-12-12	Vermont State - Johnson	H	Non-D1	-	-	-
2025-12-17	New Hampshire	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-22	Syracuse	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-02	New Haven	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-04	Wagner	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-08	Central Connecticut	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-10	Chicago State	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-17	Mercyhurst	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-19	Saint Francis	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-23	Long Island University	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-25	Central Connecticut	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	Fairleigh Dickinson	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-31	Le Moyne	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-05	Fairleigh Dickinson	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-07	Long Island University	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-12	Chicago State	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	Wagner	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-19	New Haven	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Le Moyne	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	Saint Francis	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	Mercyhurst	H	Conference	-	-	-

Stonehill Offense

Metric	Stonehill	Opponent	Metric

Stonehill Defense

Metric	Stonehill	Opponent	Metric

Model Predictions

Model	Stonehill	Opponent	Predicted Score	Spread	Result	MAE

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Offense: Vitals

Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.460
Rank: 7 of 10 in NEC, 319 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 10 of 10 in NEC, 328 of 365 in D1

319th

Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.192
Rank: 8 of 10 in NEC, 328 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 7 of 10 in NEC, 239 of 365 in D1

328th

Off Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 24.950
Rank: 6 of 10 in NEC, 281 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 7 of 10 in NEC, 163 of 365 in D1

281st

FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.200
Rank: 10 of 10 in NEC, 365 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 10 of 10 in NEC, 363 of 365 in D1

365th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.516
Rank: 4 of 10 in NEC, 196 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 5 of 10 in NEC, 278 of 365 in D1

196th

Opp Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.113
Rank: 10 of 10 in NEC, 364 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 10 of 10 in NEC, 344 of 365 in D1

364th

Def Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 74.770
Rank: 1 of 10 in NEC, 78 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 10 in NEC, 146 of 365 in D1

78th

Opp FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.377
Rank: 5 of 10 in NEC, 207 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 10 in NEC, 155 of 365 in D1

207th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 91.23

348th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.0%

287th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 85.5%

97th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 40.9%

328th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 58.7%

214th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.8%

315th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 50.6%

174th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 44.8%

348th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 41.3%

152nd

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.2%

116th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.0%

133rd

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 35.2%

122nd

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 20.0%

365th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.1%

362nd

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.0%

363rd

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 65.4%

322nd

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 56.5%

110th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.5%

357th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 5.2%

291st

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 15.2%

359th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 19.2%

328th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 24.9%

281st

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 70.31

220th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 0.94

337th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.46

319th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 109.46

205th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 39.0%

278th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 85.1%

270th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 45.9%

235th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 62.8%

256th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.3%

321st

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 53.4%

294th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 54.9%

262nd

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 37.2%

110th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.8%

101st

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.7%

157th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 31.3%

107th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 37.6%

207th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.1%

180th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.3%

265th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 67.2%

54th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 44.3%

37th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 6.1%

352nd

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.9%

156th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.9%

53rd

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 11.2%

364th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 74.8%

78th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 71.66

182nd

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.09

243rd

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.52

196th