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Bellarmine

Model	Score	Rank
Adj EM	-13.56	277
Elo	1340.93	357
RPI	0.47	224

Updated through 2025-12-08

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend

About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record (Conf)
2025-11-29	Northern Illinois	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-13	Northern Kentucky	H	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-17	Chattanooga	H	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-23	Kentucky	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-01	West Georgia	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-03	Queens University	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-08	Central Arkansas	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-10	North Alabama	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-15	Lipscomb	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-17	Eastern Kentucky	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-22	Jacksonville	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-24	North Florida	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-28	West Georgia	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-31	Queens University	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-05	Stetson	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-07	Florida Gulf Coast	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-11	Central Arkansas	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	Austin Peay	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-18	Lipscomb	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Eastern Kentucky	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-25	North Alabama	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	Austin Peay	H	Conference	-	-	-

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record
2020-12-04	Duke	A	Non-Conference	L	54-76	0-1 (0-0)
2020-12-06	Howard	A	Non-Conference	W	84-63	1-1 (0-0)
2020-12-09	Chattanooga	H	Non-Conference	L	68-77	1-2 (0-0)
2020-12-23	Notre Dame	A	Non-Conference	L	70-81	1-3 (0-0)
2021-01-01	Transylvania	H	Non-D1	W	90-40	2-3 (0-0)
2021-01-02	Mount St. Joseph	H	Non-D1	W	90-38	3-3 (0-0)
2021-01-08	Lipscomb	H	Conference	L	72-77	3-4 (0-1)
2021-01-09	Lipscomb	H	Conference	L	58-65	3-5 (0-2)
2021-01-15	FGCU	A	Conference	W	74-60	4-5 (1-2)
2021-01-16	FGCU	A	Conference	W	80-63	5-5 (2-2)
2021-01-22	Stetson	H	Conference	W	67-62	6-5 (3-2)
2021-01-23	Stetson	H	Conference	W	76-65	7-5 (4-2)
2021-01-29	Kennesaw State	A	Conference	W	84-67	8-5 (5-2)
2021-01-30	Kennesaw State	A	Conference	W	84-79	9-5 (6-2)
2021-02-05	Jacksonville	H	Conference	W	71-56	10-5 (7-2)
2021-02-06	Jacksonville	H	Conference	W	63-44	11-5 (8-2)
2021-02-12	North Alabama	A	Conference	W	66-64	12-5 (9-2)
2021-02-13	North Alabama	A	Conference	W	87-63	13-5 (10-2)
2021-02-27	Liberty	H	Conference	L	78-94	13-6 (10-3)
2021-03-04	Stetson	N	Conference Tournament	L	70-73	13-7 (10-3)
2021-03-22	Army	N	Conference	W	77-67	14-7 (11-3)
2021-03-23	Pepperdine	N	Non-Conference	L	71-82	14-8 (11-3)
2021-11-09	Purdue	A	Non-Conference	L	67-96	0-1 (0-0)
2021-11-13	Murray State	A	Non-Conference	L	59-78	0-2 (0-0)
2021-11-17	Saint Mary's	A	Non-Conference	L	64-73	0-3 (0-0)
2021-11-19	Gonzaga	A	Non-Conference	L	50-92	0-4 (0-0)
2021-11-22	UCLA	N	Non-Conference	L	62-75	0-5 (0-0)
2021-11-23	Cent Michigan	N	Non-Conference	W	76-69	1-5 (0-0)
2021-11-28	Franklin	H	Non-D1	W	75-37	2-5 (0-0)
2021-11-30	West Virginia	A	Non-Conference	L	55-74	2-6 (0-0)
2021-12-05	Defiance	H	Non-D1	W	92-43	3-6 (0-0)
2021-12-09	Asbury College	H	Non-D1	W	87-55	4-6 (0-0)
2021-12-10	Midway	H	Non-D1	W	89-39	5-6 (0-0)
2021-12-15	South Dakota	A	Non-Conference	L	64-78	5-7 (0-0)
2021-12-18	Miami (OH)	A	Non-Conference	W	77-68	6-7 (0-0)
2021-12-21	Loyola Mary	H	Non-Conference	L	57-71	6-8 (0-0)
2022-01-04	Jacksonville St	A	Conference	-	-	-
2022-01-08	E Kentucky	H	Conference	W	66-61	7-8 (1-0)
2022-01-11	Cent Arkansas	H	Conference	W	85-63	8-8 (2-0)
2022-01-15	Lipscomb	A	Conference	W	77-71	9-8 (3-0)
2022-01-18	North Alabama	H	Conference	W	68-60	10-8 (4-0)
2022-01-22	Jacksonville	H	Conference	W	76-73	11-8 (5-0)
2022-01-24	Jacksonville St	A	Conference	L	60-65	11-9 (5-1)
2022-01-27	Stetson	A	Conference	W	72-47	12-9 (6-1)
2022-01-29	FGCU	A	Conference	W	74-63	13-9 (7-1)
2022-02-03	Liberty	H	Conference	L	53-66	13-10 (7-2)
2022-02-05	Kennesaw State	H	Conference	L	70-75	13-11 (7-3)
2022-02-09	North Florida	A	Conference	W	73-70	14-11 (8-3)
2022-02-12	North Alabama	A	Conference	W	75-69	15-11 (9-3)
2022-02-16	Cent Arkansas	A	Conference	W	79-69	16-11 (10-3)
2022-02-20	Jacksonville St	H	Conference	L	67-82	16-12 (10-4)
2022-02-23	Lipscomb	H	Conference	W	76-73	17-12 (11-4)
2022-02-26	E Kentucky	A	Conference	L	58-72	17-13 (11-5)
2022-03-03	FGCU	N	Conference Tournament	W	81-68	18-13 (11-5)
2022-03-05	Liberty	N	Conference Tournament	W	53-50	19-13 (11-5)
2022-03-08	Jacksonville	N	Conference Tournament	W	77-72	20-13 (11-5)
2022-11-09	Louisville	A	Non-Conference	W	67-66	1-0 (0-0)
2022-11-12	Morehead State	A	Non-Conference	L	55-62	1-1 (0-0)
2022-11-14	Campbellsville-Harrodsburg	H	Non-D1	W	86-46	2-1 (0-0)
2022-11-18	Clemson	A	Non-Conference	L	66-76	2-2 (0-0)
2022-11-21	Duke	A	Non-Conference	L	57-74	2-3 (0-0)
2022-11-25	Loyola Mary	A	Non-Conference	L	59-80	2-4 (0-0)
2022-11-27	UCLA	A	Non-Conference	L	60-81	2-5 (0-0)
2022-11-29	Kentucky	A	Non-Conference	L	41-60	2-6 (0-0)
2022-12-04	Alice Lloyd College	H	Non-D1	W	110-38	3-6 (0-0)
2022-12-06	Wabash College	H	Non-D1	W	86-45	4-6 (0-0)
2022-12-10	Murray State	H	Non-Conference	W	69-58	5-6 (0-0)
2022-12-17	Miami (OH)	H	Non-Conference	L	67-71	5-7 (0-0)
2022-12-21	Evansville	A	Non-Conference	L	61-73	5-8 (0-0)
2022-12-29	Liberty	H	Conference	L	53-70	5-9 (0-1)
2023-01-02	North Alabama	A	Conference	W	69-65	6-9 (1-1)
2023-01-05	Queens University	H	Conference	L	74-75	6-10 (1-2)
2023-01-07	Jacksonville St	A	Conference	W	75-62	7-10 (2-2)
2023-01-12	Stetson	H	Conference	L	51-80	7-11 (2-3)
2023-01-14	FGCU	H	Conference	W	61-41	8-11 (3-3)
2023-01-19	Austin Peay	A	Conference	W	56-45	9-11 (4-3)
2023-01-21	Lipscomb	A	Conference	L	49-69	9-12 (4-4)
2023-01-26	E Kentucky	H	Conference	W	72-71	10-12 (5-4)
2023-01-28	E Kentucky	A	Conference	L	63-73	10-13 (5-5)
2023-02-02	Kennesaw State	H	Conference	L	84-90	10-14 (5-6)
2023-02-04	Jacksonville St	H	Conference	W	71-64	11-14 (6-6)
2023-02-09	Liberty	A	Conference	L	50-70	11-15 (6-7)
2023-02-11	Queens University	A	Conference	W	88-84	12-15 (7-7)
2023-02-16	North Alabama	H	Conference	L	57-70	12-16 (7-8)
2023-02-19	Cent Arkansas	H	Conference	W	68-67	13-16 (8-8)
2023-02-22	Jacksonville	A	Conference	W	63-61	14-16 (9-8)
2023-02-24	North Florida	A	Conference	L	67-79	14-17 (9-9)
2023-02-27	North Florida	N	Conference Tournament	W	76-74	15-17 (9-9)
2023-02-28	Liberty	N	Conference Tournament	L	56-76	15-18 (9-9)
2023-11-06	Washington	A	Non-Conference	L	57-91	0-1 (0-0)
2023-11-10	Kansas State	A	Non-Conference	L	75-83	0-2 (0-0)
2023-11-14	Chattanooga	A	Non-Conference	L	64-72	0-3 (0-0)
2023-11-17	Bowling Green	A	Non-Conference	W	85-67	1-3 (0-0)
2023-11-20	Morehead State	H	Non-Conference	L	51-64	1-4 (0-0)
2023-11-21	Midway University	H	Non-D1	W	77-56	2-4 (0-0)
2023-11-26	West Virginia	A	Non-Conference	L	58-62	2-5 (0-0)
2023-11-29	Louisville	A	Non-Conference	L	68-73	2-6 (0-0)
2023-12-02	Ball State	A	Non-Conference	L	58-67	2-7 (0-0)
2023-12-16	Evansville	H	Non-Conference	L	61-70	2-8 (0-0)
2023-12-20	Utah	A	Non-Conference	L	43-85	2-9 (0-0)
2023-12-22	BYU	A	Non-Conference	L	59-101	2-10 (0-0)
2023-12-30	High Point	A	Non-Conference	L	85-90	2-11 (0-0)
2024-01-04	Austin Peay	H	Conference	L	68-84	2-12 (0-1)
2024-01-06	Lipscomb	H	Conference	L	70-81	2-13 (0-2)
2024-01-11	North Alabama	A	Conference	L	53-69	2-14 (0-3)
2024-01-13	Cent Arkansas	A	Conference	L	57-59	2-15 (0-4)
2024-01-20	E Kentucky	A	Conference	L	70-82	2-16 (0-5)
2024-01-25	North Florida	H	Conference	L	63-71	2-17 (0-6)
2024-01-27	Jacksonville	H	Conference	W	69-63	3-17 (1-6)
2024-02-01	Kennesaw State	A	Conference	W	96-95	4-17 (2-6)
2024-02-03	Queens University	A	Conference	L	75-85	4-18 (2-7)
2024-02-07	Stetson	H	Conference	L	77-84	4-19 (2-8)
2024-02-10	FGCU	A	Conference	L	52-63	4-20 (2-9)
2024-02-17	E Kentucky	H	Conference	L	65-75	4-21 (2-10)
2024-02-22	Cent Arkansas	H	Conference	W	68-65	5-21 (3-10)
2024-02-24	North Alabama	H	Conference	W	82-70	6-21 (4-10)
2024-02-28	Lipscomb	A	Conference	L	74-90	6-22 (4-11)
2024-03-01	Austin Peay	A	Conference	L	87-90	6-23 (4-12)
2024-11-04	VCU	A	Non-Conference	L	65-84	0-1 (0-0)
2024-11-09	VMI	H	Non-Conference	L	71-76	0-2 (0-0)
2024-11-13	Southern Indiana	H	Non-Conference	L	69-71	0-3 (0-0)
2024-11-16	Marshall	A	Non-Conference	L	62-83	0-4 (0-0)
2024-11-19	Louisville	A	Non-Conference	L	68-100	0-5 (0-0)
2024-11-23	Bowling Green	H	Non-Conference	W	80-68	1-5 (0-0)
2024-11-26	Midway University	H	Non-D1	W	101-60	2-5 (0-0)
2024-11-30	N Kentucky	A	Non-Conference	L	70-86	2-6 (0-0)
2024-12-04	W Carolina	A	Non-Conference	L	74-86	2-7 (0-0)
2024-12-07	Brescia	H	Non-D1	W	94-66	3-7 (0-0)
2024-12-14	Ball State	H	Non-Conference	L	82-86	3-8 (0-0)
2024-12-19	Wyoming	A	Non-Conference	L	55-92	3-9 (0-0)
2024-12-21	Colorado	A	Non-Conference	L	55-79	3-10 (0-0)
2025-01-02	North Alabama	A	Conference	L	66-82	3-11 (0-1)
2025-01-04	Cent Arkansas	A	Conference	L	65-71	3-12 (0-2)
2025-01-09	Jacksonville	H	Conference	L	59-74	3-13 (0-3)
2025-01-11	North Florida	H	Conference	L	83-98	3-14 (0-4)
2025-01-16	Lipscomb	H	Conference	L	53-87	3-15 (0-5)
2025-01-18	E Kentucky	A	Conference	L	69-72	3-16 (0-6)
2025-01-23	FGCU	H	Conference	L	61-77	3-17 (0-7)
2025-01-25	Stetson	H	Conference	L	76-81	3-18 (0-8)
2025-01-30	Austin Peay	A	Conference	L	77-86	3-19 (0-9)
2025-02-01	Lipscomb	A	Conference	L	80-87	3-20 (0-10)
2025-02-06	North Florida	A	Conference	L	88-95	3-21 (0-11)
2025-02-08	Jacksonville	A	Conference	L	64-73	3-22 (0-12)
2025-02-13	Queens University	H	Conference	L	87-92	3-23 (0-13)
2025-02-15	West Georgia	H	Conference	L	76-81	3-24 (0-14)
2025-02-18	Austin Peay	H	Conference	W	94-68	4-24 (1-14)
2025-02-20	E Kentucky	H	Conference	W	80-74	5-24 (2-14)
2025-02-24	Stetson	A	Conference	L	67-69	5-25 (2-15)
2025-02-26	FGCU	A	Conference	L	61-80	5-26 (2-16)
2025-11-03	Georgia	A	Non-Conference	L	59-104	0-1 (0-0)
2025-11-08	Kansas State	A	Non-Conference	L	71-98	0-2 (0-0)
2025-11-12	Hanover	H	Non-D1	W	94-55	1-2 (0-0)
2025-11-15	Wofford	H	Non-Conference	L	86-94	1-3 (0-0)
2025-11-19	Notre Dame	A	Non-Conference	L	79-86	1-4 (0-0)
2025-11-24	The Citadel	A	Non-Conference	W	70-58	2-4 (0-0)
2025-11-25	Houston Christian	H	Non-Conference	W	74-69	3-4 (0-0)
2025-11-29	Northern Illinois	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-03	Midway University	H	Non-D1	W	99-60	4-4 (0-0)
2025-12-06	Murray State	A	Non-Conference	L	68-81	4-5 (0-0)
2025-12-13	Northern Kentucky	H	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-17	Chattanooga	H	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-23	Kentucky	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-01	West Georgia	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-03	Queens University	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-08	Central Arkansas	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-10	North Alabama	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-15	Lipscomb	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-17	Eastern Kentucky	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-22	Jacksonville	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-24	North Florida	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-28	West Georgia	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-31	Queens University	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-05	Stetson	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-07	Florida Gulf Coast	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-11	Central Arkansas	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	Austin Peay	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-18	Lipscomb	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Eastern Kentucky	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-25	North Alabama	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	Austin Peay	H	Conference	-	-	-

Bellarmine Offense

Metric	Bellarmine	Opponent	Metric

Bellarmine Defense

Metric	Bellarmine	Opponent	Metric

Model Predictions

Model	Bellarmine	Opponent	Predicted Score	Spread	Result	MAE

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Offense: Vitals

Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.569
Rank: 2 of 12 in ASUN, 40 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 12 in ASUN, 21 of 365 in D1

40th

Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.160
Rank: 5 of 12 in ASUN, 159 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 12 in ASUN, 162 of 365 in D1

159th

Off Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 15.620
Rank: 12 of 12 in ASUN, 364 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 12 in ASUN, 70 of 365 in D1

364th

FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.349
Rank: 1 of 12 in ASUN, 214 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 12 in ASUN, 43 of 365 in D1

214th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.617
Rank: 12 of 12 in ASUN, 365 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 7 of 12 in ASUN, 237 of 365 in D1

365th

Opp Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.164
Rank: 5 of 12 in ASUN, 170 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 12 in ASUN, 52 of 365 in D1

170th

Def Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 63.400
Rank: 11 of 12 in ASUN, 348 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 12 of 12 in ASUN, 349 of 365 in D1

348th

Opp FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.404
Rank: 10 of 12 in ASUN, 276 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 12 in ASUN, 160 of 365 in D1

276th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 109.95

125th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 41.4%

47th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 79.4%

306th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 52.2%

14th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 61.9%

154th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.0%

30th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 49.5%

195th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 62.8%

12th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 38.1%

212th

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.4%

230th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.9%

255th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 34.5%

153rd

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 34.9%

214th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.2%

173rd

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.0%

250th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 78.4%

21st

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 50.7%

229th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 6.4%

33rd

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.5%

90th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.3%

307th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.0%

159th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 15.6%

364th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 67.52

325th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.14

80th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.57

40th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 123.52

357th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 42.8%

351st

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 82.4%

183rd

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 52.5%

364th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 54.7%

54th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.1%

283rd

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 45.2%

65th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 62.1%

359th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 45.3%

312th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 14.7%

350th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.2%

301st

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 39.8%

349th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 40.4%

276th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.3%

275th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.9%

284th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 73.4%

253rd

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 50.7%

138th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.2%

84th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 2.1%

353rd

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.9%

153rd

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 16.4%

170th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 63.4%

348th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 67.81

319th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.24

360th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.62

365th