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UC San Diego

Model	Score	Rank
Adj EM	11.73	81
Elo	1659.47	22
RPI	0.631	23

Updated through 2025-12-08

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend

About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record (Conf)
2025-12-13	Tulane	N	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-16	Loyola Marymount	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-19	San Diego	H	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-28	Stanton	H	Non-D1	-	-	-
2026-01-01	Cal Poly	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-03	Hawai'i	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-08	Cal State Fullerton	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-10	UC Riverside	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-15	Cal State Northridge	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-17	Cal State Bakersfield	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-22	UC Davis	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-24	UC Irvine	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	UC Santa Barbara	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-31	Cal State Northridge	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-05	Long Beach State	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-07	Hawai'i	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-12	UC Davis	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	UC Riverside	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	UC Irvine	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	Cal State Bakersfield	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	Cal Poly	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-03-05	Cal State Fullerton	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-03-07	UC Santa Barbara	A	Conference	-	-	-

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record
2020-12-22	St. Katherine	H	Non-D1	W	77-51	1-0 (0-0)
2020-12-23	St. Katherine	H	Non-D1	W	75-39	2-0 (0-0)
2021-01-09	UC Irvine	H	Conference	L	65-79	2-1 (0-1)
2021-01-15	UCSB	A	Conference	L	52-69	2-2 (0-2)
2021-01-16	UCSB	A	Conference	L	53-84	2-3 (0-3)
2021-01-22	UC Davis	H	Conference	W	89-69	3-3 (1-3)
2021-01-23	UC Davis	H	Conference	L	71-78	3-4 (1-4)
2021-01-31	UC Riverside	A	Conference	L	59-71	3-5 (1-5)
2021-02-07	Bethesda University	H	Non-D1	W	101-64	4-5 (1-5)
2021-02-12	CSU Bakersfield	A	Conference	L	71-76	4-6 (1-6)
2021-02-13	CSU Bakersfield	A	Conference	L	50-65	4-7 (1-7)
2021-02-19	UC Riverside	N	Conference Tournament	L	75-81	4-8 (1-7)
2021-02-20	UC Riverside	N	Conference Tournament	W	83-82	5-8 (1-7)
2021-02-26	UC Irvine	N	Conference Tournament	L	55-80	5-9 (1-7)
2021-02-27	UC Irvine	N	Conference Tournament	L	64-75	5-10 (1-7)
2021-03-05	CSU Fullerton	N	Conference Tournament	W	89-85	6-10 (1-7)
2021-03-06	CSU Fullerton	N	Conference Tournament	W	85-78	7-10 (1-7)
2021-11-09	Cal	A	Non-Conference	W	80-67	1-0 (0-0)
2021-11-13	G Washington	H	Non-Conference	W	75-55	2-0 (0-0)
2021-11-16	San Diego Christian	H	Non-D1	W	97-60	3-0 (0-0)
2021-11-20	Sacramento St	A	Non-Conference	W	71-56	4-0 (0-0)
2021-11-24	Montana	A	Non-Conference	L	61-71	4-1 (0-0)
2021-11-25	Southern Miss	N	Non-Conference	L	55-56	4-2 (0-0)
2021-12-02	E Michigan	H	Non-Conference	W	83-74	5-2 (0-0)
2021-12-12	Seattle	A	Non-Conference	L	51-73	5-3 (0-0)
2021-12-15	Denver	A	Non-Conference	L	56-64	5-4 (0-0)
2021-12-18	Cal Tech	H	Non-D1	W	93-52	6-4 (0-0)
2021-12-22	San Diego State	A	Non-Conference	L	57-78	6-5 (0-0)
2021-12-30	UCSB	N	Conference Tournament	W	85-83	7-5 (0-0)
2022-01-01	CSU Northridge	H	Conference	W	72-64	8-5 (1-0)
2022-01-06	UC Riverside	A	Conference	L	51-59	8-6 (1-1)
2022-01-08	UC Davis	A	Conference	L	71-78	8-7 (1-2)
2022-01-11	UC Irvine	A	Conference	-	-	-
2022-01-15	Hawai'i	A	Conference	L	56-79	8-8 (1-3)
2022-01-20	Long Beach St	H	Conference	L	69-87	8-9 (1-4)
2022-01-22	CSU Fullerton	A	Conference	L	80-83	8-10 (1-5)
2022-01-27	Cal Poly	H	Conference	L	55-59	8-11 (1-6)
2022-01-29	CSU Bakersfield	H	Conference	W	83-75	9-11 (2-6)
2022-02-03	CSU Northridge	A	Conference	W	83-77	10-11 (3-6)
2022-02-05	UCSB	A	Conference	L	48-84	10-12 (3-7)
2022-02-10	UC Davis	H	Conference	-	-	-
2022-02-12	UC Riverside	H	Conference	W	85-62	11-12 (4-7)
2022-02-15	UC Irvine	N	Conference Tournament	L	50-56	11-13 (4-7)
2022-02-17	Hawai'i	N	Conference Tournament	L	53-65	11-14 (4-7)
2022-02-24	Long Beach St	N	Conference Tournament	L	87-103	11-15 (4-7)
2022-02-26	CSU Fullerton	N	Conference Tournament	W	81-76	12-15 (4-7)
2022-03-03	CSU Bakersfield	N	Conference Tournament	W	72-70	13-15 (4-7)
2022-03-05	Cal Poly	N	Conference Tournament	L	76-80	13-16 (4-7)
2022-11-07	Seattle	H	Non-Conference	L	71-85	0-1 (0-0)
2022-11-12	Sacramento St	H	Non-Conference	L	55-65	0-2 (0-0)
2022-11-15	Cal	H	Non-Conference	W	64-62	1-2 (0-0)
2022-11-18	Navy	A	Non-Conference	L	69-78	1-3 (0-0)
2022-11-19	Youngstown St	N	Non-Conference	L	54-73	1-4 (0-0)
2022-11-22	G Washington	A	Non-Conference	W	75-70	2-4 (0-0)
2022-11-27	E Michigan	A	Non-Conference	W	66-63	3-4 (0-0)
2022-12-12	San Diego	A	Non-Conference	L	58-84	3-5 (0-0)
2022-12-14	Nevada	A	Non-Conference	L	56-64	3-6 (0-0)
2022-12-17	Occidental	H	Non-D1	W	91-55	4-6 (0-0)
2022-12-20	San Diego State	A	Non-Conference	L	46-62	4-7 (0-0)
2022-12-29	Long Beach St	A	Conference	W	85-83	5-7 (1-0)
2022-12-31	UCSB	A	Conference	L	61-82	5-8 (1-1)
2023-01-05	Hawai'i	H	Conference	L	49-62	5-9 (1-2)
2023-01-11	UC Riverside	H	Conference	L	68-74	5-10 (1-3)
2023-01-14	CSU Bakersfield	A	Conference	L	52-56	5-11 (1-4)
2023-01-16	UC Davis	H	Conference	L	70-78	5-12 (1-5)
2023-01-19	Cal Poly	A	Conference	W	71-64	6-12 (2-5)
2023-01-21	Long Beach St	H	Conference	L	110-112	6-13 (2-6)
2023-01-26	CSU Northridge	A	Conference	W	65-57	7-13 (3-6)
2023-01-28	UC Riverside	A	Conference	L	65-72	7-14 (3-7)
2023-02-02	UC Irvine	H	Conference	L	60-76	7-15 (3-8)
2023-02-04	CSU Bakersfield	H	Conference	L	69-75	7-16 (3-9)
2023-02-09	Hawai'i	A	Conference	L	62-69	7-17 (3-10)
2023-02-15	CSU Fullerton	H	Conference	L	73-76	7-18 (3-11)
2023-02-18	CSU Northridge	H	Conference	W	75-62	8-18 (4-11)
2023-02-20	UC Davis	A	Conference	L	66-76	8-19 (4-12)
2023-02-23	UC Irvine	A	Conference	W	99-91	9-19 (5-12)
2023-02-25	UCSB	H	Conference	L	71-87	9-20 (5-13)
2023-11-06	Denver	H	Non-Conference	W	95-87	1-0 (0-0)
2023-11-11	San Diego	H	Non-Conference	W	69-63	2-0 (0-0)
2023-11-13	La Verne	H	Non-D1	W	116-57	3-0 (0-0)
2023-11-18	Navy	H	Non-Conference	W	73-55	4-0 (0-0)
2023-11-24	Idaho	N	Non-Conference	L	70-73	4-1 (0-0)
2023-11-26	Seattle	A	Non-Conference	L	67-79	4-2 (0-0)
2023-11-28	Washington	N	Non-Conference	L	56-83	4-3 (0-0)
2023-12-01	San Diego State	H	Non-Conference	L	62-63	4-4 (0-0)
2023-12-05	Occidental	H	Non-D1	W	98-67	5-4 (0-0)
2023-12-09	Pepperdine	A	Non-Conference	L	62-68	5-5 (0-0)
2023-12-18	Sacramento St	A	Non-Conference	W	83-52	6-5 (0-0)
2023-12-20	Cal	A	Non-Conference	L	67-71	6-6 (0-0)
2023-12-28	CSU Bakersfield	H	Conference	W	76-64	7-6 (1-0)
2024-01-04	UCSB	A	Conference	W	79-72	8-6 (2-0)
2024-01-06	CSU Fullerton	A	Conference	W	76-58	9-6 (3-0)
2024-01-11	Long Beach St	H	Conference	W	88-74	10-6 (4-0)
2024-01-13	Cal Poly	A	Conference	W	86-61	11-6 (5-0)
2024-01-18	UC Irvine	A	Conference	L	65-76	11-7 (5-1)
2024-01-20	Hawai'i	H	Conference	W	67-61	12-7 (6-1)
2024-01-25	UC Riverside	H	Conference	W	66-65	13-7 (7-1)
2024-01-27	UC Davis	A	Conference	W	92-59	14-7 (8-1)
2024-02-01	CSU Northridge	H	Conference	W	83-62	15-7 (9-1)
2024-02-03	Long Beach St	A	Conference	L	76-85	15-8 (9-2)
2024-02-08	Hawai'i	A	Conference	L	86-94	15-9 (9-3)
2024-02-15	UCSB	H	Conference	W	61-46	16-9 (10-3)
2024-02-17	CSU Fullerton	H	Conference	W	76-69	17-9 (11-3)
2024-02-22	UC Riverside	A	Conference	W	77-65	18-9 (12-3)
2024-02-24	UC Irvine	H	Conference	W	92-88	19-9 (13-3)
2024-02-29	CSU Bakersfield	A	Conference	L	57-70	19-10 (13-4)
2024-03-02	CSU Northridge	A	Conference	W	79-69	20-10 (14-4)
2024-03-07	UC Davis	H	Conference	L	63-70	20-11 (14-5)
2024-03-09	Cal Poly	H	Conference	W	92-87	21-11 (15-5)
2024-03-23	Chicago State	N	Ro CBI - 1st Round	L	75-77	21-12 (15-5)
2024-11-06	San Diego State	A	Non-Conference	L	58-63	0-1 (0-0)
2024-11-09	Pepperdine	H	Non-Conference	W	94-76	1-1 (0-0)
2024-11-12	Sacramento St	H	Non-Conference	W	64-54	2-1 (0-0)
2024-11-16	Seattle	H	Non-Conference	L	71-84	2-2 (0-0)
2024-11-21	La Salle	N	Non-Conference	W	72-67	3-2 (0-0)
2024-11-22	James Madison	N	Non-Conference	W	73-67	4-2 (0-0)
2024-11-23	Toledo	N	Non-Conference	W	80-45	5-2 (0-0)
2024-11-30	La Verne	H	Non-D1	W	109-33	6-2 (0-0)
2024-12-05	UCSB	A	Conference	W	84-76	7-2 (1-0)
2024-12-07	CSU Bakersfield	H	Conference	W	81-60	8-2 (2-0)
2024-12-15	Idaho	A	Non-Conference	W	80-56	9-2 (2-0)
2024-12-17	Utah State	A	Non-Conference	W	75-73	10-2 (2-0)
2024-12-21	San Diego	A	Non-Conference	W	77-71	11-2 (2-0)
2024-12-28	Occidental	H	Non-D1	W	109-51	12-2 (2-0)
2025-01-04	CSU Fullerton	A	Conference	W	90-51	13-2 (3-0)
2025-01-09	Cal Poly	H	Conference	W	95-68	14-2 (4-0)
2025-01-11	UC Irvine	H	Conference	L	52-60	14-3 (4-1)
2025-01-16	Long Beach St	A	Conference	W	80-54	15-3 (5-1)
2025-01-18	UC Riverside	A	Conference	L	81-85	15-4 (5-2)
2025-01-23	UCSB	H	Conference	W	77-63	16-4 (6-2)
2025-01-25	CSU Northridge	H	Conference	W	79-54	17-4 (7-2)
2025-01-30	Hawai'i	A	Conference	W	74-63	18-4 (8-2)
2025-02-06	UC Riverside	H	Conference	W	91-71	19-4 (9-2)
2025-02-08	UC Irvine	A	Conference	W	85-67	20-4 (10-2)
2025-02-13	CSU Bakersfield	A	Conference	W	73-54	21-4 (11-2)
2025-02-15	UC Davis	H	Conference	W	85-60	22-4 (12-2)
2025-02-20	Cal Poly	A	Conference	W	81-67	23-4 (13-2)
2025-02-22	Hawai'i	H	Conference	W	83-44	24-4 (14-2)
2025-02-27	CSU Northridge	A	Conference	W	77-71	25-4 (15-2)
2025-03-01	CSU Fullerton	H	Conference	W	100-55	26-4 (16-2)
2025-03-06	Long Beach St	H	Conference	W	70-63	27-4 (17-2)
2025-03-08	UC Davis	A	Conference	W	68-57	28-4 (18-2)
2025-03-14	UCSB	N	Conference Tournament	W	69-51	29-4 (18-2)
2025-03-15	UC Irvine	N	Conference Tournament	W	75-61	30-4 (18-2)
2025-03-20	Michigan	N	MEN'S BASKETBALL CHAMPIONSHIP - SOUTH REGION - 1ST ROUND	L	65-68	30-5 (18-2)
2025-11-03	La Verne	H	Non-D1	W	105-73	1-0 (0-0)
2025-11-08	Houston Christian	H	Non-Conference	W	78-60	2-0 (0-0)
2025-11-12	Fresno State	A	Non-Conference	W	78-73	3-0 (0-0)
2025-11-15	Idaho	H	Non-Conference	W	75-67	4-0 (0-0)
2025-11-24	Temple	N	Non-Conference	W	91-76	5-0 (0-0)
2025-11-25	Bradley	N	Non-Conference	W	87-77	6-0 (0-0)
2025-11-26	Towson	N	Non-Conference	W	87-73	7-0 (0-0)
2025-12-02	Nevada	A	Non-Conference	L	70-76	7-1 (0-0)
2025-12-06	Long Beach State	A	Conference	W	80-74	8-1 (1-0)
2025-12-13	Tulane	N	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-16	Loyola Marymount	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-19	San Diego	H	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-28	Stanton	H	Non-D1	-	-	-
2026-01-01	Cal Poly	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-03	Hawai'i	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-08	Cal State Fullerton	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-10	UC Riverside	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-15	Cal State Northridge	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-17	Cal State Bakersfield	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-22	UC Davis	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-24	UC Irvine	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	UC Santa Barbara	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-31	Cal State Northridge	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-05	Long Beach State	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-07	Hawai'i	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-12	UC Davis	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	UC Riverside	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	UC Irvine	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	Cal State Bakersfield	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	Cal Poly	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-03-05	Cal State Fullerton	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-03-07	UC Santa Barbara	A	Conference	-	-	-

UC San Diego Offense

Metric	UC San Diego	Opponent	Metric

UC San Diego Defense

Metric	UC San Diego	Opponent	Metric

Model Predictions

Model	UC San Diego	Opponent	Predicted Score	Spread	Result	MAE

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Offense: Vitals

Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.604
Rank: 1 of 11 in BWC, 9 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 2 of 11 in BWC, 89 of 365 in D1

9th

Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.129
Rank: 1 of 11 in BWC, 19 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 11 in BWC, 149 of 365 in D1

19th

Off Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 19.270
Rank: 11 of 11 in BWC, 355 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 8 of 11 in BWC, 337 of 365 in D1

355th

FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.354
Rank: 9 of 11 in BWC, 202 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 8 of 11 in BWC, 120 of 365 in D1

202nd

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.494
Rank: 3 of 11 in BWC, 112 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 8 of 11 in BWC, 263 of 365 in D1

112th

Opp Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.155
Rank: 8 of 11 in BWC, 223 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 11 of 11 in BWC, 365 of 365 in D1

223rd

Def Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 72.100
Rank: 8 of 11 in BWC, 170 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 11 in BWC, 264 of 365 in D1

170th

Opp FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.300
Rank: 1 of 11 in BWC, 67 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 3 of 11 in BWC, 113 of 365 in D1

67th

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 118.14

46th

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 42.0%

33rd

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 82.2%

228th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 51.3%

23rd

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 56.3%

264th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 27.2%

155th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 46.4%

266th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 59.7%

35th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 43.7%

102nd

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 14.8%

26th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.8%

119th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 40.9%

7th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 35.4%

202nd

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.9%

183rd

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.6%

145th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 65.8%

317th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 54.3%

158th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 6.5%

39th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.2%

62nd

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.9%

231st

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 12.9%

19th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 19.3%

355th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 69.14

266th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.20

36th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.60

9th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 106.41

160th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.6%

181st

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 86.9%

309th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 42.1%

89th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 56.4%

82nd

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.8%

92nd

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 49.0%

164th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 48.0%

76th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 43.6%

284th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.8%

297th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.9%

321st

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 33.3%

186th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 30.0%

67th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 17.8%

71st

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 26.1%

96th

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 67.5%

64th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 47.2%

79th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.5%

188th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 2.9%

319th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 23.6%

84th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 15.5%

223rd

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 72.1%

170th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 69.48

259th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.04

156th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.49

112th