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Mercyhurst

Model Score Rank
Adj EM-9.22236
Elo1449.98257
RPI0.407314
Updated through 2025-12-08

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend

About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

DateOpponentSiteTypeResultScoreRecord (Conf)
2025-12-13DavidsonANon-Conference---
2025-12-17SyracuseANon-Conference---
2025-12-20BinghamtonHNon-Conference---
2026-01-02Fairleigh DickinsonHConference---
2026-01-04Le MoyneHConference---
2026-01-08Long Island UniversityAConference---
2026-01-10WagnerAConference---
2026-01-17StonehillHConference---
2026-01-19Central ConnecticutHConference---
2026-01-23New HavenAConference---
2026-01-25Chicago StateHConference---
2026-01-29New HavenHConference---
2026-01-31Chicago StateAConference---
2026-02-05Saint FrancisHConference---
2026-02-07Fairleigh DickinsonAConference---
2026-02-12Le MoyneAConference---
2026-02-14Saint FrancisAConference---
2026-02-19WagnerHConference---
2026-02-21Long Island UniversityHConference---
2026-02-26Central ConnecticutAConference---
2026-02-28StonehillAConference---
Date Opponent Site Type Result Score Record
2024-11-04 G Washington A Non-Conference L 59-76 0-1 (0-0)
2024-11-06 Morgan State A Non-Conference W 78-73 1-1 (0-0)
2024-11-09 Houghton H Non-D1 W 88-62 2-1 (0-0)
2024-11-13 Canisius H Non-Conference W 62-52 3-1 (0-0)
2024-11-16 Columbia A Non-Conference L 63-77 3-2 (0-0)
2024-11-19 Mount Aloysius H Non-D1 W 98-45 4-2 (0-0)
2024-11-24 Air Force A Non-Conference L 48-82 4-3 (0-0)
2024-11-27 Cal A Non-Conference L 55-81 4-4 (0-0)
2024-11-30 Sacramento St A Non-Conference W 66-60 5-4 (0-0)
2024-12-01 San Francisco A Non-Conference L 59-87 5-5 (0-0)
2024-12-07 Lafayette H Non-Conference L 73-77 5-6 (0-0)
2024-12-10 Penn State-Altoona H Non-D1 W 77-51 6-6 (0-0)
2024-12-15 Kent State A Non-Conference L 57-82 6-7 (0-0)
2024-12-18 Binghamton A Non-Conference L 60-62 6-8 (0-0)
2024-12-22 West Virginia A Non-Conference L 46-67 6-9 (0-0)
2025-01-03 Stonehill H Conference W 76-69 7-9 (1-0)
2025-01-05 Cent Conn St H Conference L 50-62 7-10 (1-1)
2025-01-10 St Francis (PA) A Conference L 59-73 7-11 (1-2)
2025-01-12 Le Moyne A Conference L 63-79 7-12 (1-3)
2025-01-18 Wagner A Conference W 69-65 8-12 (2-3)
2025-01-20 Brooklyn A Conference L 63-72 8-13 (2-4)
2025-01-24 Wagner H Conference W 71-66 9-13 (3-4)
2025-01-26 Brooklyn H Conference W 85-80 10-13 (4-4)
2025-01-30 St Francis (PA) H Conference W 62-58 11-13 (5-4)
2025-02-01 Fair Dickinson A Conference W 67-60 12-13 (6-4)
2025-02-06 Chicago State A Conference L 78-85 12-14 (6-5)
2025-02-08 Le Moyne H Conference W 82-78 13-14 (7-5)
2025-02-13 Cent Conn St A Conference L 63-73 13-15 (7-6)
2025-02-15 Stonehill A Conference L 73-85 13-16 (7-7)
2025-02-20 Fair Dickinson H Conference W 65-60 14-16 (8-7)
2025-02-27 Chicago State H Conference W 90-68 15-16 (9-7)
2025-11-03 Northwestern A Non-Conference L 47-70 0-1 (0-0)
2025-11-06 Loyola-Chicago A Non-Conference W 73-65 1-1 (0-0)
2025-11-08 Penn State-New Kensington H Non-D1 W 94-43 2-1 (0-0)
2025-11-12 Canisius A Non-Conference L 55-58 2-2 (0-0)
2025-11-15 Morgan State H Non-Conference W 86-72 3-2 (0-0)
2025-11-20 Miami (OH) A Non-Conference L 71-76 3-3 (0-0)
2025-11-23 Marshall A Non-Conference L 60-69 3-4 (0-0)
2025-11-30 West Virginia A Non-Conference L 38-70 3-5 (0-0)
2025-12-05 Lafayette A Non-Conference L 71-79 3-6 (0-0)
2025-12-07 Bethany (WV) H Non-D1 W 80-51 4-6 (0-0)
2025-12-13 Davidson A Non-Conference - - -
2025-12-17 Syracuse A Non-Conference - - -
2025-12-20 Binghamton H Non-Conference - - -
2026-01-02 Fairleigh Dickinson H Conference - - -
2026-01-04 Le Moyne H Conference - - -
2026-01-08 Long Island University A Conference - - -
2026-01-10 Wagner A Conference - - -
2026-01-17 Stonehill H Conference - - -
2026-01-19 Central Connecticut H Conference - - -
2026-01-23 New Haven A Conference - - -
2026-01-25 Chicago State H Conference - - -
2026-01-29 New Haven H Conference - - -
2026-01-31 Chicago State A Conference - - -
2026-02-05 Saint Francis H Conference - - -
2026-02-07 Fairleigh Dickinson A Conference - - -
2026-02-12 Le Moyne A Conference - - -
2026-02-14 Saint Francis A Conference - - -
2026-02-19 Wagner H Conference - - -
2026-02-21 Long Island University H Conference - - -
2026-02-26 Central Connecticut A Conference - - -
2026-02-28 Stonehill A Conference - - -

Mercyhurst Offense

Metric Mercyhurst Opponent Metric

Mercyhurst Defense

Metric Mercyhurst Opponent Metric

Model Predictions

Model Mercyhurst Opponent Predicted Score Spread Result MAE
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Offense: Vitals

Shooting


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.468
Rank: 6 of 10 in NEC, 298 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 10 in NEC, 132 of 365 in D1
298th

Turnovers


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.149
Rank: 3 of 10 in NEC, 98 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 10 in NEC, 84 of 365 in D1
98th

Off Reb Pct


2025-26 Season Mean: 25.430
Rank: 5 of 10 in NEC, 263 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 10 in NEC, 9 of 365 in D1
263rd

FT Rate


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.260
Rank: 8 of 10 in NEC, 349 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 9 of 10 in NEC, 362 of 365 in D1
349th

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.497
Rank: 1 of 10 in NEC, 125 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 10 in NEC, 197 of 365 in D1
125th

Opp Turnovers


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.188
Rank: 2 of 10 in NEC, 66 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Weakening
Trend Rank: 3 of 10 in NEC, 219 of 365 in D1
66th

Def Reb Pct


2025-26 Season Mean: 68.780
Rank: 6 of 10 in NEC, 270 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 10 in NEC, 147 of 365 in D1
270th

Opp FT Rate


2025-26 Season Mean: 0.504
Rank: 10 of 10 in NEC, 354 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 4 of 10 in NEC, 130 of 365 in D1
354th
Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 97.56
292nd

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 39.5%
106th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 88.0%
29th

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 44.8%
202nd

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 66.1%
74th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.3%
42nd

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 58.4%
22nd

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 52.8%
181st

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 33.9%
292nd

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 9.2%
290th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.6%
259th

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 30.9%
280th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 26.0%
349th

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 12.2%
360th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 20.1%
357th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 56.8%
364th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 48.8%
271st

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 6.4%
34th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.5%
226th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 19.9%
289th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 14.9%
98th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 25.4%
263rd

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 65.58
355th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.01
295th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.47
298th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 106.78
167th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 32.9%
48th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 76.5%
29th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 43.0%
119th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 60.8%
198th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 22.5%
50th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 46.4%
91st

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 48.3%
87th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 39.2%
168th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.4%
157th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 30.2%
107th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.5%
150th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 50.4%
354th

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.6%
359th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 39.1%
351st

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 76.3%
325th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 58.4%
298th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 10.2%
130th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 6.1%
61st

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.7%
339th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 18.8%
66th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 68.8%
270th

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 66.10
350th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.06
188th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.50
125th
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