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Tarleton

Model	Score	Rank
Adj EM	-3.82	198
Elo	1486.09	209
RPI	0.557	93

Updated through 2025-12-08

Efficiency Margin Rank Trend

Elo Rank Trend

RPI Rank Trend

About the models: The Adj EM model (Adjusted Efficiency Margin) is the difference between the Adjusted Offensive Efficiency and Adjusted Defensive Efficiency. Essentially, it is a PPP (points per possession) differential adjusted for the quality of competition. The data points that are plotted are the calculated efficiency margins on each particular date. In practice, the adjusted offensive and defensive efficiencies for each game change with each new game result. So, the effect of any particular game result becomes less important as the season unfolds. This is evident in the plot as there are fairly large efficiency fluctations at the beginning of each new season. The effect is similar with the RPI: the scores and ranks become more stable as the season progresses.

The Elo model does not reset each year and so does not suffer from the same sort of early season data deficiency issues as season efficiency margins and RPI. The downside of this is that the model tends to lag the Adj EM and RPI models which quickly reflect changes in coaching or team personnel. The Elo model is used extensively at fivethirtyeight for their NFL and NBA predictive models. This Elo model has the following parameters: Starting Elo=1500, K=20, Home Court Advantage = 100; At the beginning of each new season, starting Elo is 0.75 previous season Elo + 0.25 Mean Elo (1505).

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record (Conf)
2025-12-16	Mississippi Valley State	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-19	Florida A&M	H	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-29	UT Arlington	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-01	Utah Valley	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-03	California Baptist	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-08	Abilene Christian	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-15	Southern Utah	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-17	Utah Tech	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-21	UT Arlington	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-24	Abilene Christian	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	Utah Valley	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-31	Utah Tech	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-05	California Baptist	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-07	Southern Utah	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	Abilene Christian	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-19	Southern Utah	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Utah Tech	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	Utah Valley	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	California Baptist	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-03-05	UT Arlington	H	Conference	-	-	-

Date	Opponent	Site	Type	Result	Score	Record
2020-11-25	Dallas Christian	H	Non-D1	W	103-48	1-0 (0-0)
2020-12-02	Texas A&M	A	Non-Conference	L	66-73	1-1 (0-0)
2020-12-05	Abil Christian	A	Non-Conference	L	48-69	1-2 (0-0)
2020-12-09	Arlington Baptist	H	Non-D1	W	84-43	2-2 (0-0)
2021-01-08	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	72-75	2-3 (0-1)
2021-01-09	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	48-59	2-4 (0-2)
2021-01-15	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	74-83	2-5 (0-3)
2021-01-16	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	67-73	2-6 (0-4)
2021-01-17	Weber State	A	Non-Conference	L	79-94	2-7 (0-4)
2021-01-25	Howard Payne	H	Non-D1	W	113-53	3-7 (0-4)
2021-01-29	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	60-73	3-8 (0-5)
2021-01-30	Utah Valley	A	Conference	W	70-62	4-8 (1-5)
2021-02-06	SW Adventist	H	Non-D1	W	97-26	5-8 (1-5)
2021-02-09	McMurry	H	Non-D1	W	112-54	6-8 (1-5)
2021-02-19	Dixie State	A	Conference	W	77-59	7-8 (2-5)
2021-02-20	Dixie State	A	Conference	L	48-64	7-9 (2-6)
2021-02-26	New Mexico St	H	Conference	L	51-78	7-10 (2-7)
2021-02-27	New Mexico St	H	Conference	W	64-55	8-10 (3-7)
2021-03-05	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	W	65-47	9-10 (4-7)
2021-03-06	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	W	69-58	10-10 (5-7)
2021-11-09	Stanford	A	Non-Conference	L	50-62	0-1 (0-0)
2021-11-12	Kansas	A	Non-Conference	L	62-88	0-2 (0-0)
2021-11-16	Wichita State	A	Non-Conference	L	51-65	0-3 (0-0)
2021-11-19	Paul Quinn	H	Non-D1	W	69-42	1-3 (0-0)
2021-11-22	North Dakota St	A	Non-Conference	L	53-54	1-4 (0-0)
2021-11-24	Michigan	A	Non-Conference	L	54-65	1-5 (0-0)
2021-11-29	Gonzaga	A	Non-Conference	L	55-64	1-6 (0-0)
2021-12-05	Charleston So	H	Non-Conference	L	57-59	1-7 (0-0)
2021-12-07	Dallas Christian	H	Non-D1	W	84-65	2-7 (0-0)
2021-12-08	Southwest Assemblies of God	H	Non-D1	W	81-75	3-7 (0-0)
2021-12-14	South Alabama	A	Non-Conference	L	62-69	3-8 (0-0)
2021-12-17	South Alabama	H	Non-Conference	W	65-52	4-8 (0-0)
2021-12-21	Air Force	H	Non-Conference	W	67-45	5-8 (0-0)
2021-12-30	Dixie State	A	Conference	W	83-69	6-8 (1-0)
2022-01-01	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	55-77	6-9 (1-1)
2022-01-06	Sam Houston	H	Conference	W	75-64	7-9 (2-1)
2022-01-08	SF Austin	H	Conference	W	77-71	8-9 (3-1)
2022-01-13	New Mexico St	A	Conference	L	57-73	8-10 (3-2)
2022-01-15	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	59-80	8-11 (3-3)
2022-01-20	California Baptist	H	Conference	L	84-88	8-12 (3-4)
2022-01-22	Seattle	H	Conference	L	68-76	8-13 (3-5)
2022-01-26	Lamar	A	Conference	W	62-57	9-13 (4-5)
2022-01-29	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	W	79-64	10-13 (5-5)
2022-02-05	Chicago State	H	Conference	W	57-54	11-13 (6-5)
2022-02-12	Abil Christian	H	Conference	L	63-77	11-14 (6-6)
2022-02-16	Utah Valley	H	Conference	L	56-69	11-15 (6-7)
2022-02-19	Chicago State	A	Conference	W	79-60	12-15 (7-7)
2022-02-24	UT Rio Grande	H	Conference	W	75-62	13-15 (8-7)
2022-02-26	Lamar	H	Conference	W	57-49	14-15 (9-7)
2022-03-03	Sam Houston	A	Conference	L	50-69	14-16 (9-8)
2022-03-05	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	56-61	14-17 (9-9)
2022-11-07	Arizona State	A	Non-Conference	L	59-62	0-1 (0-0)
2022-11-10	Kansas Christian	H	Non-D1	W	95-49	1-1 (0-0)
2022-11-18	Belmont	N	Non-Conference	W	89-81	2-1 (0-0)
2022-11-20	Boston College	N	Non-Conference	W	70-54	3-1 (0-0)
2022-11-21	Drake	N	Non-Conference	L	64-71	3-2 (0-0)
2022-11-26	Wichita State	A	Non-Conference	L	71-83	3-3 (0-0)
2022-11-29	Weber State	H	Non-Conference	W	75-65	4-3 (0-0)
2022-12-03	Wiley	H	Non-D1	W	98-55	5-3 (0-0)
2022-12-06	Baylor	A	Non-Conference	L	57-80	5-4 (0-0)
2022-12-11	UCF	A	Non-Conference	L	49-75	5-5 (0-0)
2022-12-18	Air Force	A	Non-Conference	L	67-81	5-6 (0-0)
2022-12-21	Huston-Tillotson	H	Non-D1	W	114-56	6-6 (0-0)
2022-12-29	UT Arlington	H	Conference	W	70-63	7-6 (1-0)
2022-12-31	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	63-69	7-7 (1-1)
2023-01-05	Southern Utah	H	Conference	W	68-65	8-7 (2-1)
2023-01-07	Sam Houston	A	Conference	L	68-75	8-8 (2-2)
2023-01-11	Chicago State	H	Non-Conference	W	73-63	9-8 (2-2)
2023-01-14	Abil Christian	H	Conference	W	72-63	10-8 (3-2)
2023-01-19	Seattle	A	Conference	L	47-67	10-9 (3-3)
2023-01-21	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	48-77	10-10 (3-4)
2023-01-26	Dixie State	H	Conference	W	74-72	11-10 (4-4)
2023-01-28	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	W	81-62	12-10 (5-4)
2023-02-04	UT Rio Grande	H	Conference	L	65-68	12-11 (5-5)
2023-02-06	UT Arlington	A	Conference	W	69-64	13-11 (6-5)
2023-02-09	Southern Utah	A	Conference	L	62-72	13-12 (6-6)
2023-02-11	Dixie State	A	Conference	W	75-71	14-12 (7-6)
2023-02-15	SF Austin	A	Conference	L	60-65	14-13 (7-7)
2023-02-18	Sam Houston	H	Conference	L	59-64	14-14 (7-8)
2023-02-23	Utah Valley	H	Conference	W	77-58	15-14 (8-8)
2023-02-25	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	L	95-99	15-15 (8-9)
2023-02-28	Southwestern Assemblies of God	H	Non-D1	W	110-45	16-15 (8-9)
2023-03-03	New Mexico St	H	Conference Tournament	-	-	-
2023-03-07	UT Rio Grande	N	Conference Tournament	W	74-70	17-15 (8-9)
2023-03-09	Utah Valley	N	Conference Tournament	L	58-72	17-16 (8-9)
2023-03-19	Radford	N	Discount Tire CBI - 1st Round	L	70-72	17-17 (8-9)
2023-11-06	UVA	A	Non-Conference	L	50-80	0-1 (0-0)
2023-11-09	FIU	A	Non-Conference	W	82-65	1-1 (0-0)
2023-11-11	UNT Dallas	H	Non-D1	W	93-52	2-1 (0-0)
2023-11-14	Bradley	A	Non-Conference	L	63-86	2-2 (0-0)
2023-11-20	Austin Peay	N	Non-Conference	W	66-59	3-2 (0-0)
2023-11-22	CSU Bakersfield	N	Non-Conference	W	59-40	4-2 (0-0)
2023-11-29	SF Austin	A	Conference	W	68-66	5-2 (1-0)
2023-12-02	UT Rio Grande	H	Conference	W	77-75	6-2 (2-0)
2023-12-05	Hardin-Simmons	H	Non-D1	W	92-56	7-2 (2-0)
2023-12-12	Sterling College (KS)	H	Non-D1	W	85-47	8-2 (2-0)
2023-12-18	Jacksonville St	H	Non-Conference	L	62-65	8-3 (2-0)
2023-12-21	Tennessee	A	Non-Conference	L	46-65	8-4 (2-0)
2023-12-29	Loyola Mary	A	Non-Conference	W	79-66	9-4 (2-0)
2024-01-04	UT Arlington	H	Conference	W	78-76	10-4 (3-0)
2024-01-11	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	63-77	10-5 (3-1)
2024-01-13	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	48-74	10-6 (3-2)
2024-01-18	Abil Christian	H	Conference	W	79-71	11-6 (4-2)
2024-01-20	UT Rio Grande	A	Conference	W	77-73	12-6 (5-2)
2024-01-25	Southern Utah	H	Conference	L	70-73	12-7 (5-3)
2024-01-27	Dixie State	H	Conference	W	86-68	13-7 (6-3)
2024-02-01	Abil Christian	A	Conference	W	76-73	14-7 (7-3)
2024-02-03	SF Austin	H	Conference	W	75-64	15-7 (8-3)
2024-02-08	Utah Valley	A	Conference	W	72-61	16-7 (9-3)
2024-02-10	Seattle	A	Conference	W	82-77	17-7 (10-3)
2024-02-15	UT Arlington	A	Conference	W	80-78	18-7 (11-3)
2024-02-22	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	W	77-74	19-7 (12-3)
2024-02-24	California Baptist	H	Conference	W	82-65	20-7 (13-3)
2024-02-29	Dixie State	A	Conference	W	85-74	21-7 (14-3)
2024-03-02	Southern Utah	A	Conference	W	88-83	22-7 (15-3)
2024-03-07	Utah Valley	H	Conference	L	60-63	22-8 (15-4)
2024-03-09	Seattle	H	Conference	W	69-66	23-8 (16-4)
2024-03-15	UT Arlington	N	Conference Tournament	L	84-87	23-9 (16-4)
2024-03-19	Texas Southern	N	CIT	W	82-71	24-9 (16-4)
2024-03-20	Abil Christian	N	CIT	W	86-59	25-9 (16-4)
2024-03-25	Fort Wayne	N	CIT - SEMIFINAL	L	72-73	25-10 (16-4)
2024-11-04	SMU	A	Non-Conference	L	62-96	0-1 (0-0)
2024-11-09	Sam Houston	H	Non-Conference	L	62-91	0-2 (0-0)
2024-11-12	Florida State	A	Non-Conference	L	52-72	0-3 (0-0)
2024-11-17	Baylor	A	Non-Conference	L	41-104	0-4 (0-0)
2024-11-21	Michigan	A	Non-Conference	L	49-72	0-5 (0-0)
2024-11-29	Iona	N	Non-Conference	L	51-62	0-6 (0-0)
2024-11-30	Hofstra	N	Non-Conference	W	61-59	1-6 (0-0)
2024-12-01	Indiana State	N	Non-Conference	L	71-87	1-7 (0-0)
2024-12-03	Dallas Christian	H	Non-D1	W	90-50	2-7 (0-0)
2024-12-08	UCF	A	Non-Conference	L	51-66	2-8 (0-0)
2024-12-16	UTEP	A	Non-Conference	L	62-67	2-9 (0-0)
2024-12-18	Oklahoma State	A	Non-Conference	L	61-66	2-10 (0-0)
2024-12-21	Howard Payne	H	Non-D1	W	100-83	3-10 (0-0)
2024-12-29	Florida A&M	H	Non-Conference	W	70-60	4-10 (0-0)
2025-01-04	UT Arlington	H	Conference	W	77-74	5-10 (1-0)
2025-01-09	Southern Utah	A	Conference	W	74-66	6-10 (2-0)
2025-01-11	Dixie State	A	Conference	L	54-58	6-11 (2-1)
2025-01-16	California Baptist	H	Conference	W	67-57	7-11 (3-1)
2025-01-18	Grand Canyon	A	Conference	L	64-88	7-12 (3-2)
2025-01-23	Abil Christian	A	Conference	L	56-67	7-13 (3-3)
2025-01-30	Dixie State	H	Conference	W	61-54	8-13 (4-3)
2025-02-01	Southern Utah	H	Conference	W	75-58	9-13 (5-3)
2025-02-06	Seattle	A	Conference	L	54-91	9-14 (5-4)
2025-02-08	Utah Valley	A	Conference	L	56-81	9-15 (5-5)
2025-02-13	Grand Canyon	H	Conference	L	60-64	9-16 (5-6)
2025-02-15	Seattle	H	Conference	W	67-64	10-16 (6-6)
2025-02-22	UT Arlington	A	Conference	L	57-67	10-17 (6-7)
2025-02-27	Abil Christian	H	Conference	W	67-52	11-17 (7-7)
2025-03-06	California Baptist	A	Conference	L	48-68	11-18 (7-8)
2025-03-08	Utah Valley	H	Conference	L	66-71	11-19 (7-9)
2025-03-13	California Baptist	N	Conference Tournament	L	51-55	11-20 (7-9)
2025-11-03	SMU	A	Non-Conference	L	76-96	0-1 (0-0)
2025-11-05	LSU	A	Non-Conference	L	60-96	0-2 (0-0)
2025-11-08	Texas A&M-CC	H	Non-Conference	W	85-77	1-2 (0-0)
2025-11-11	Merrimack	H	Non-Conference	W	76-62	2-2 (0-0)
2025-11-14	Baylor	A	Non-Conference	L	81-94	2-3 (0-0)
2025-11-17	Angelo State	H	Non-D1	W	77-54	3-3 (0-0)
2025-11-20	Rice	A	Non-Conference	W	90-74	4-3 (0-0)
2025-11-28	Midwestern State	H	Non-D1	W	67-57	5-3 (0-0)
2025-12-01	Cincinnati	A	Non-Conference	L	58-76	5-4 (0-0)
2025-12-03	Howard Payne	H	Non-D1	W	119-54	6-4 (0-0)
2025-12-07	Cameron	H	Non-D1	W	93-63	7-4 (0-0)
2025-12-16	Mississippi Valley State	A	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-19	Florida A&M	H	Non-Conference	-	-	-
2025-12-29	UT Arlington	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-01	Utah Valley	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-03	California Baptist	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-08	Abilene Christian	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-15	Southern Utah	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-17	Utah Tech	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-21	UT Arlington	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-24	Abilene Christian	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-29	Utah Valley	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-01-31	Utah Tech	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-05	California Baptist	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-07	Southern Utah	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-14	Abilene Christian	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-19	Southern Utah	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-21	Utah Tech	H	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-26	Utah Valley	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-02-28	California Baptist	A	Conference	-	-	-
2026-03-05	UT Arlington	H	Conference	-	-	-

Tarleton Offense

Metric	Tarleton	Opponent	Metric

Tarleton Defense

Metric	Tarleton	Opponent	Metric

Model Predictions

Model	Tarleton	Opponent	Predicted Score	Spread	Result	MAE

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Offense: Vitals

Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.512
Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 169 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 7 in WAC, 17 of 365 in D1

169th

Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.198
Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 346 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 62 of 365 in D1

346th

Off Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 31.390
Rank: 4 of 7 in WAC, 112 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 1 of 7 in WAC, 2 of 365 in D1

112th

FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.445
Rank: 1 of 7 in WAC, 42 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 7 in WAC, 357 of 365 in D1

42nd

Defense: Vitals

Opp Shooting

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.581
Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 347 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 305 of 365 in D1

347th

Opp Turnovers

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.207
Rank: 1 of 7 in WAC, 18 of 365 in D1
Trend: Weakly Up, Weakening
Trend Rank: 4 of 7 in WAC, 153 of 365 in D1

18th

Def Reb Pct

2025-26 Season Mean: 63.990
Rank: 7 of 7 in WAC, 342 of 365 in D1
Trend: Strongly Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 7 of 7 in WAC, 326 of 365 in D1

342nd

Opp FT Rate

2025-26 Season Mean: 0.479
Rank: 6 of 7 in WAC, 341 of 365 in D1
Trend: Moderately Down, Strengthening
Trend Rank: 2 of 7 in WAC, 20 of 365 in D1

341st

Note: These are Dean Oliver's Four Factors of Basketball Success. It's fairly intuitive: When a team has the ball, they can do one of 4 things: (1) Get a bucket, (2) Turn the ball over, (3) Shoot the ball, miss, then rebound to retain possession, or (4) Get fouled and either retain possession or head to the line. These four factors are measured by (1) Effective Field Goal percentage (EFG) = (FGM + 0.5*3FGM)/FGA, (2) Turnover Pct = # TOs/Possessions, (3) Offensive Rebounding % = OR/(OR+Opp DR), and (4) Free Throw Rate = FTA/FGA. The stats are repeated on the defensive side using the opponents' numbers.

Adj Off Eff

Season
Avg: 108.71

142nd

FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.0%

218th

FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 78.8%

323rd

FG Pct

Season
Avg: 46.8%

116th

2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 72.8%

4th

2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 29.8%

57th

2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 57.4%

35th

2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 50.9%

245th

3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 27.2%

362nd

3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 7.2%

348th

3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 21.4%

363rd

3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 32.2%

234th

FT Rate

Season
Avg: 44.5%

42nd

FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.4%

70th

FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 31.9%

104th

FT Pct

Season
Avg: 74.3%

100th

Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 45.5%

325th

Balls Stolen Per Poss

Season
Avg: 5.7%

10th

Balls Blocked Per FGA

Season
Avg: 3.6%

100th

Fouls Drawn Per Poss

Season
Avg: 18.1%

336th

Turnovers

Season
Avg: 19.8%

346th

Off Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 31.4%

112th

Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 72.14

157th

Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.06

210th

Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.51

169th

Adj Def Eff

Season
Avg: 112.53

257th

Opp FGM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 37.6%

219th

Opp FGA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 76.5%

28th

Opp FG Pct (%)

Season
Avg: 49.7%

336th

Opp 2Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 54.6%

49th

Opp 2PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 24.5%

136th

Opp 2PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 41.5%

12th

Opp 2Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 59.4%

337th

Opp 3Pt Rate

Season
Avg: 45.4%

317th

Opp 3PM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 13.1%

312th

Opp 3PA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 35.0%

246th

Opp 3Pt Pct

Season
Avg: 37.6%

327th

Opp FT Rate

Season
Avg: 47.9%

341st

Opp FTM Per Poss

Season
Avg: 25.4%

317th

Opp FTA Per Poss

Season
Avg: 36.0%

332nd

Opp FT Pct

Season
Avg: 69.5%

116th

Opp Assists per FGM

Season
Avg: 56.2%

267th

Steals Per Poss

Season
Avg: 11.0%

90th

Blocks Per FGA

Season
Avg: 4.8%

166th

Fouls Per Poss

Season
Avg: 28.9%

324th

Opp Turnovers

Season
Avg: 20.7%

18th

Def Reb Pct

Season
Avg: 64.0%

342nd

Opp Off Tempo

Season
Avg: 72.03

166th

Opp Points per Poss

Season
Avg: 1.14

307th

Opp Shooting

Season
Avg: 0.58

347th