Atlantic 10 Update: Week 1

November 16, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic 10 enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): VCU
Trending Down (Efficiency): Davidson, Dayton, Duquesne, Fordham, George Mason

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1519.5 (ranked 156 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.39 (ranked 82 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Dayton

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1620.6 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.07 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

TOV_PCT (Forced Turnover Rate (causing opponent turnovers – higher is better)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 162 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Duquesne

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1521.1 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.09 (ranked 131 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Fordham

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1432.2 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.99 (ranked 263 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

G Washington

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1543.8 (ranked 117 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.31 (ranked 55 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

George Mason

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1628.0 (ranked 41 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.49 (ranked 77 of 365)

Insufficient games played for meaningful trend analysis (MACD requires 12+ games).

La Salle

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1460.8 (ranked 244 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.54 (ranked 206 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1570.4 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.25 (ranked 237 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Richmond

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1481.9 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.74 (ranked 178 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1565.4 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.93 (ranked 204 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Saint Louis

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1556.8 (ranked 101 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.94 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

St Bonaventure

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1585.5 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.32 (ranked 99 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

URI

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1490.1 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.86 (ranked 102 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
TOV_PCT (Forced Turnover Rate (causing opponent turnovers – higher is better)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

VCU

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1654.8 (ranked 22 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.60 (ranked 60 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic 10 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10

TagsA10 Atlantic 10 Conference