Big East Update: Week 1

November 16, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big East enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Providence, Seton Hall, UConn
Trending Down (Efficiency): Butler, Creighton, DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette

Team-by-Team Analysis

Butler

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1512.8 (ranked 165 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.08 (ranked 63 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Creighton

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1651.9 (ranked 26 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.83 (ranked 52 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

DePaul

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1421.5 (ranked 294 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.18 (ranked 165 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Georgetown

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1516.4 (ranked 161 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.01 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
TOV_PCT (Turnover Rate (turnovers per 100 possessions – lower is better)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Marquette

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1624.4 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.06 (ranked 66 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Providence

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1486.4 (ranked 210 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.84 (ranked 97 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Seton Hall

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1487.3 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.87 (ranked 65 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

St John’s

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1678.3 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.62 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UConn

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1703.9 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +49.12 (ranked 2 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Villanova

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1581.6 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.32 (ranked 73 of 365)

Insufficient games played for meaningful trend analysis (MACD requires 12+ games).

Xavier

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1582.3 (ranked 75 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.36 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBE

TagsBE Big East