Big South Update: Week 1
November 16, 2025The Big South enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): USC Upstate
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Charleston So, Gardner-Webb, High Point, Longwood, Presbyterian
Team-by-Team Analysis
Charleston So
Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1380.2 (ranked 333 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.31 (ranked 315 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Gardner-Webb
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1433.7 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.47 (ranked 344 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
High Point
Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1620.8 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.55 (ranked 87 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Defensive Trends:
- TOV_PCT (Forced Turnover Rate (causing opponent turnovers – higher is better)): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Longwood
Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1501.9 (ranked 180 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.97 (ranked 202 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Presbyterian
Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1428.7 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.33 (ranked 286 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Radford
Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1503.7 (ranked 176 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.49 (ranked 207 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
UNC Asheville
Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1542.0 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.65 (ranked 218 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
USC Upstate
Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1360.4 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.07 (ranked 175 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Winthrop
Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1537.6 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.99 (ranked 132 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- TOV_PCT (Turnover Rate (turnovers per 100 possessions – lower is better)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As Big South teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
