Coastal Update: Week 1

November 16, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Colonial enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Colonial teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Elon, Hampton, Stony Brook, Campbell
Trending Down (Efficiency): Charleston, Drexel, Hofstra, Northeastern, Towson

Team-by-Team Analysis

Campbell

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1460.9 (ranked 242 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.73 (ranked 160 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Charleston

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1603.6 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.25 (ranked 222 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
TOV_PCT (Forced Turnover Rate (causing opponent turnovers – higher is better)): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Drexel

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1500.6 (ranked 181 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.66 (ranked 295 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Elon

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1466.4 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.60 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Hampton

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1456.3 (ranked 256 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.21 (ranked 253 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Hofstra

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1491.7 (ranked 196 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.51 (ranked 134 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Monmouth

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1478.0 (ranked 220 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.03 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

NC A&T

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1364.9 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.87 (ranked 216 of 365)

Insufficient games played for meaningful trend analysis (MACD requires 12+ games).

Northeastern

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1490.4 (ranked 198 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.64 (ranked 180 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Stony Brook

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1423.9 (ranked 292 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.62 (ranked 247 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Towson

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1590.4 (ranked 66 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.83 (ranked 158 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UNC Wilmington

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1609.9 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.93 (ranked 168 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

William & Mary

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1467.6 (ranked 231 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.92 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Colonial teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCAA

TagsCAA Coastal