Conference USA Update: Week 1
November 16, 2025The Conference USA enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Conference USA teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Mid Tennessee, Liberty, New Mexico St
- Trending Down (Efficiency): FIU, LA Tech, UTEP, W Kentucky, Jacksonville St
Team-by-Team Analysis
Delaware
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1471.4 (ranked 228 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.62 (ranked 219 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FIU
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1398.1 (ranked 320 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.04 (ranked 290 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Jacksonville St
Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1545.2 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.42 (ranked 141 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Kennesaw State
Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1527.6 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.96 (ranked 118 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
LA Tech
Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1548.4 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.78 (ranked 225 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Liberty
Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1630.4 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.36 (ranked 54 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Mid Tennessee
Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1560.4 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.87 (ranked 109 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Missouri State
Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1412.2 (ranked 306 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.53 (ranked 294 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
New Mexico St
Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1512.4 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.34 (ranked 96 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Sam Houston
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1499.3 (ranked 183 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.93 (ranked 187 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
UTEP
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1481.1 (ranked 217 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.81 (ranked 326 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
W Kentucky
Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1530.1 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.75 (ranked 159 of 365)
Insufficient games played for meaningful trend analysis (MACD requires 12+ games).
Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As Conference USA teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
