Horizon Update: Week 1
November 16, 2025The Horizon enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Cleveland State, IUPUI, Oakland, Youngstown St, Robert Morris
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Detroit Mercy, Green Bay, Milwaukee, N Kentucky, Wright State
Team-by-Team Analysis
Cleveland State
Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1511.5 (ranked 169 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.41 (ranked 221 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- TOV_PCT (Forced Turnover Rate (causing opponent turnovers – higher is better)): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Detroit Mercy
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1333.5 (ranked 356 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.80 (ranked 302 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Green Bay
Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1341.4 (ranked 352 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.06 (ranked 305 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
IUPUI
Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1340.2 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.08 (ranked 214 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Milwaukee
Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1534.6 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.18 (ranked 211 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
N Kentucky
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1495.9 (ranked 188 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.30 (ranked 328 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 241 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Oakland
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1508.4 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.39 (ranked 244 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Purdue Fort Wayne
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1500.3 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.09 (ranked 213 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Robert Morris
Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1556.0 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.11 (ranked 166 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Wright State
Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1460.5 (ranked 246 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.73 (ranked 145 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Youngstown St
Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1542.4 (ranked 118 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.50 (ranked 88 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As Horizon teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
