SEC Update: Week 1

November 16, 2025 0 By Neill White

The SEC enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): LSU, Miss St, Vanderbilt
Trending Down (Efficiency): Alabama, Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Georgia

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1707.3 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.68 (ranked 44 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Arkansas

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1602.6 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.71 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Auburn

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1734.4 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.39 (ranked 34 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Florida

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1739.2 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.57 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Georgia

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1582.4 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +39.34 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

TOV_PCT (Turnover Rate (turnovers per 100 possessions – lower is better)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

TOV_PCT (Forced Turnover Rate (causing opponent turnovers – higher is better)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Kentucky

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1642.7 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +38.67 (ranked 14 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

LSU

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1508.9 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.21 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Miss St

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1588.3 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.47 (ranked 49 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Missouri

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1576.3 (ranked 84 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.54 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Oklahoma

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1561.7 (ranked 95 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.34 (ranked 89 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Ole Miss

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1628.6 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.30 (ranked 38 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

South Carolina

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1525.0 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.26 (ranked 142 of 365)

Insufficient games played for meaningful trend analysis (MACD requires 12+ games).

Tennessee

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1713.5 (ranked 5 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +45.28 (ranked 4 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Texas

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1580.7 (ranked 79 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.18 (ranked 45 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Texas A&M

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1611.8 (ranked 52 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.66 (ranked 133 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Vanderbilt

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1576.7 (ranked 83 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.99 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SEC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC

TagsSEC Southeastern Conference