Southern Update: Week 1

November 16, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Southern enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southern teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
Trending Down (Efficiency): Chattanooga, ETSU, Furman, Mercer, Samford

Team-by-Team Analysis

Chattanooga

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1610.7 (ranked 53 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.75 (ranked 301 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

ETSU

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1537.2 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.23 (ranked 62 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Furman

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1555.4 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.61 (ranked 323 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

TOV_PCT (Turnover Rate (turnovers per 100 possessions – lower is better)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Mercer

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1459.1 (ranked 252 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.17 (ranked 252 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Samford

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1584.4 (ranked 72 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.74 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

The Citadel

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1297.6 (ranked 365 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.84 (ranked 358 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

UNCG

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1504.4 (ranked 175 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.35 (ranked 321 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

VMI

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1396.4 (ranked 321 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.38 (ranked 299 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

W Carolina

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1424.8 (ranked 290 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.34 (ranked 332 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Wofford

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1535.5 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.77 (ranked 226 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southern teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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