Sun Belt Update: Week 1

November 16, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Sun Belt enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Sun Belt teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Ga Southern, Troy, UL Monroe, Marshall, Southern Miss
Trending Down (Efficiency): Appalachian St, Arkansas State, C. Carolina, Georgia State, Louisiana

Team-by-Team Analysis

Appalachian St

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1514.7 (ranked 164 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.75 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Arkansas State

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1581.5 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.41 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

C. Carolina

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1370.6 (ranked 342 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.01 (ranked 264 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Ga Southern

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1483.8 (ranked 214 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.07 (ranked 167 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Georgia State

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1425.6 (ranked 288 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.20 (ranked 292 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

James Madison

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1516.6 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.38 (ranked 287 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Louisiana

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1443.4 (ranked 268 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.72 (ranked 317 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Marshall

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1540.0 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.17 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Old Dominion

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1434.3 (ranked 279 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.55 (ranked 300 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

South Alabama

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1560.0 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.10 (ranked 193 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Southern Miss

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1394.9 (ranked 322 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.06 (ranked 251 of 365)

Defensive Trends:

FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Texas State

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1485.1 (ranked 212 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.14 (ranked 243 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Troy

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1587.8 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.45 (ranked 147 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 221 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UL Monroe

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1337.9 (ranked 355 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.20 (ranked 338 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across Sun Belt teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Sun Belt teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySBC

TagsSBC Sun Belt Sun Belt Conference