SWAC Update: Week 1
November 16, 2025The SWAC enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SWAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Southern, Bethune-Cookman
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Alabama A&M, Alabama State, Alcorn State, AR-Pine Bluff, Grambling
Team-by-Team Analysis
AR-Pine Bluff
Record: 0-5 | Elo: 1305.7 (ranked 363 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.03 (ranked 348 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Alabama A&M
Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1367.6 (ranked 343 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -20.22 (ranked 359 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Alabama State
Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1486.6 (ranked 208 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.52 (ranked 245 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Alcorn State
Record: 0-5 | Elo: 1424.0 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.00 (ranked 340 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Bethune-Cookman
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1471.7 (ranked 227 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.85 (ranked 273 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Florida A&M
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1391.9 (ranked 326 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.87 (ranked 364 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Grambling
Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1446.5 (ranked 264 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.16 (ranked 291 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Jackson State
Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1475.8 (ranked 221 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.49 (ranked 345 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Miss Valley St
Record: 1-5 | Elo: 1234.2 (ranked 366 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -26.18 (ranked 365 of 365)
Insufficient games played for meaningful trend analysis (MACD requires 12+ games).
PV A&M
Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1318.6 (ranked 362 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.16 (ranked 349 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- TOV_PCT (Turnover Rate (turnovers per 100 possessions – lower is better)): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Southern
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1496.9 (ranked 185 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.67 (ranked 233 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- TOV_PCT (Forced Turnover Rate (causing opponent turnovers – higher is better)): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Texas Southern
Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1440.3 (ranked 272 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.60 (ranked 335 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across SWAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As SWAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
