West Coast Update: Week 1
November 16, 2025The West Coast enters Week 1 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.
Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for West Coast teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.
Conference Snapshot
- Week Dates: November 03 – November 09, 2025
- Trending Up (Efficiency): Pacific
- Trending Down (Efficiency): Gonzaga, Loyola Mary, Pepperdine, Portland, Saint Mary’s
Team-by-Team Analysis
Gonzaga
Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1701.5 (ranked 9 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +45.23 (ranked 5 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Loyola Mary
Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1519.3 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.70 (ranked 112 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Oregon State
Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1528.2 (ranked 141 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.24 (ranked 143 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Pacific
Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1372.3 (ranked 340 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.72 (ranked 151 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 99 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Pepperdine
Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1418.5 (ranked 301 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.09 (ranked 242 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Portland
Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1438.1 (ranked 275 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.65 (ranked 324 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Saint Mary’s
Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1702.0 (ranked 8 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +41.66 (ranked 7 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
San Diego
Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1371.9 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.42 (ranked 307 of 365)
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
San Francisco
Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1612.1 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.36 (ranked 78 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- DR_PCT (Defensive Rebound Rate (% of available defensive rebounds secured)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Santa Clara
Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1595.5 (ranked 63 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.99 (ranked 31 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- FTR (FTR Allowed (opponent free throws – lower is better)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Seattle
Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1509.7 (ranked 170 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.85 (ranked 125 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- EFG (Effective Field Goal % (adjusts for 3-pointers being worth more)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- TOV_PCT (Forced Turnover Rate (causing opponent turnovers – higher is better)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Washington St
Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1520.5 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.49 (ranked 234 of 365)
Offensive Trends:
- OR_PCT (Offensive Rebound Rate (% of available offensive rebounds grabbed)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate (FTM/FGA – getting to the line and converting)): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Defensive Trends:
- EFG (eFG% Allowed (lower is better – opponents shooting less efficiently)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Figure 2: Four Factors comparison across West Coast teams. The radar chart shows each team’s offensive efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).
Figure 3: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.
Looking Ahead
As West Coast teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.
Metrics Glossary
Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):
- eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
- TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
- OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
- FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
Other Metrics:
- Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
- Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
- MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.
Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.
