ACC Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The ACC enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Duke, Louisville, Miami, NC State, UNC
Trending Down (Efficiency): Boston College, Clemson, Florida State, Georgia Tech, Pitt

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1472.9 (ranked 225 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.75 (ranked 138 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 267 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Cal

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1473.8 (ranked 224 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.74 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Clemson

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1654.4 (ranked 23 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +40.21 (ranked 10 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Duke

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1756.8 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +54.64 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Florida State

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1528.6 (ranked 141 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.83 (ranked 51 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Georgia Tech

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1524.0 (ranked 148 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.22 (ranked 116 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Louisville

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1617.6 (ranked 48 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +40.25 (ranked 9 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Miami

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1456.9 (ranked 253 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.54 (ranked 77 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

NC State

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1530.8 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +44.76 (ranked 5 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Notre Dame

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1502.2 (ranked 180 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.26 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 180 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Pitt

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1551.0 (ranked 111 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.07 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

SMU

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1599.1 (ranked 59 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.11 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Stanford

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1554.9 (ranked 106 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.66 (ranked 118 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 146 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Syracuse

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1530.8 (ranked 138 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.75 (ranked 15 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UNC

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1649.8 (ranked 28 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +39.12 (ranked 13 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UVA

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1560.2 (ranked 98 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +36.34 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Virginia Tech

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1522.6 (ranked 151 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.07 (ranked 43 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Wake Forest

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1589.0 (ranked 69 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.73 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As ACC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC

TagsACC Atlantic Coast Conference