America East Update: Week 2

America East Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The America East enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for America East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

  • Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
  • Trending Up (Efficiency): Vermont, NJIT
  • Trending Down (Efficiency): Albany, Binghamton, Maine, UNH, UMass Lowell

Team-by-Team Analysis

Albany

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1446.6 (ranked 261 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.09 (ranked 309 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Binghamton

Record: 1-4 | Elo: 1426.8 (ranked 284 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.77 (ranked 328 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Bryant

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1543.9 (ranked 118 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.82 (ranked 315 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Maine

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1476.1 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.63 (ranked 272 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

NJIT

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1375.7 (ranked 337 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.28 (ranked 228 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UMBC

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1433.4 (ranked 279 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.06 (ranked 214 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

UMass Lowell

Record: 1-4 | Elo: 1467.3 (ranked 235 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.25 (ranked 359 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UNH

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1401.0 (ranked 314 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.51 (ranked 356 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Vermont

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1606.6 (ranked 56 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.78 (ranked 103 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As America East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAmerica East
TagsAEC America East Conference

Leave a Reply