American Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The American enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): USF, Tulsa, Wichita State
Trending Down (Efficiency): ECU, Memphis, Temple, Tulane, Charlotte

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1453.5 (ranked 257 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.25 (ranked 172 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

ECU

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1503.2 (ranked 179 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.09 (ranked 241 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

FAU

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1582.3 (ranked 76 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.04 (ranked 147 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Memphis

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1662.5 (ranked 19 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.74 (ranked 158 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 228 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

North Texas

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1616.5 (ranked 49 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.76 (ranked 125 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Rice

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1425.8 (ranked 287 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.47 (ranked 190 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Temple

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1504.9 (ranked 174 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.40 (ranked 106 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Tulane

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1530.1 (ranked 139 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.37 (ranked 209 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Tulsa

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1460.3 (ranked 246 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.26 (ranked 115 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UAB

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1596.4 (ranked 62 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.29 (ranked 154 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

USF

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1503.3 (ranked 178 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.11 (ranked 66 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UTSA

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1420.0 (ranked 295 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.88 (ranked 316 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Wichita State

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1539.1 (ranked 127 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.01 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC

TagsAAC American Conference