Atlantic 10 Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic 10 enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Davidson, Dayton, Duquesne, G Washington, La Salle
Trending Down (Efficiency): Fordham, George Mason, URI, Richmond, Saint Joe’s

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1519.5 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.39 (ranked 83 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Dayton

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1620.6 (ranked 45 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.07 (ranked 92 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Duquesne

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1521.1 (ranked 155 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.09 (ranked 129 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Fordham

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1432.2 (ranked 280 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.99 (ranked 264 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

G Washington

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1543.8 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.31 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

George Mason

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1628.0 (ranked 41 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.49 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

La Salle

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1460.8 (ranked 243 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.54 (ranked 208 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 1-4 | Elo: 1560.1 (ranked 99 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.81 (ranked 260 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Richmond

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1481.9 (ranked 214 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.74 (ranked 177 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1565.4 (ranked 91 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.93 (ranked 207 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Saint Louis

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1556.8 (ranked 102 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.94 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 151 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

St Bonaventure

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1585.5 (ranked 71 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.32 (ranked 99 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

URI

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1490.1 (ranked 200 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.86 (ranked 102 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 155 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

VCU

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1654.8 (ranked 22 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.60 (ranked 60 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic 10 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10

TagsA10 Atlantic 10 Conference