Atlantic Sun Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic Sun enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Jacksonville, Bellarmine, Queens University, West Georgia
Trending Down (Efficiency): FGCU, Lipscomb, North Florida, Stetson, North Alabama

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1468.7 (ranked 229 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.63 (ranked 160 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Bellarmine

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1326.9 (ranked 358 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.59 (ranked 341 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1355.4 (ranked 347 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.30 (ranked 355 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

E Kentucky

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1495.1 (ranked 191 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.29 (ranked 277 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

FGCU

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1498.3 (ranked 185 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.08 (ranked 240 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Jacksonville

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1494.2 (ranked 192 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.96 (ranked 285 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Lipscomb

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1546.7 (ranked 116 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.64 (ranked 312 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

North Alabama

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1526.0 (ranked 145 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.30 (ranked 268 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

North Florida

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1453.1 (ranked 258 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.37 (ranked 332 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Queens University

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1486.6 (ranked 208 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.46 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Stetson

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1385.6 (ranked 330 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.19 (ranked 357 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

West Georgia

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1387.5 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.44 (ranked 325 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic Sun teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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