Big 12 Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big 12 enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Trending Down (Efficiency): West Virginia, BYU, Cincinnati, Houston, Arizona State

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1688.5 (ranked 12 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +36.06 (ranked 19 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Arizona State

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1496.7 (ranked 187 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.54 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

BYU

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1660.0 (ranked 20 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.99 (ranked 25 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Baylor

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1624.2 (ranked 43 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.93 (ranked 68 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Cincinnati

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1583.3 (ranked 73 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.77 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Colorado

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1549.7 (ranked 112 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.54 (ranked 145 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Houston

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1793.6 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.65 (ranked 32 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Iowa State

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1668.1 (ranked 16 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.61 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Kansas

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1628.9 (ranked 39 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +40.53 (ranked 8 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Kansas State

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1571.8 (ranked 87 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.04 (ranked 80 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Oklahoma State

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1552.6 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.63 (ranked 52 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

TCU

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1532.7 (ranked 134 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.21 (ranked 137 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Texas Tech

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1670.5 (ranked 14 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.29 (ranked 28 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

UCF

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1564.8 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.93 (ranked 85 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Utah

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1542.0 (ranked 121 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.19 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

West Virginia

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1569.8 (ranked 88 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.56 (ranked 61 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big 12 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12

TagsB12 Big 12 Big 12 Conference