Big East Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big East enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Butler, Providence, St John’s, Villanova, UConn
Trending Down (Efficiency): Creighton, DePaul, Georgetown, Marquette, Seton Hall

Team-by-Team Analysis

Butler

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1512.8 (ranked 166 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.08 (ranked 63 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Creighton

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1651.9 (ranked 26 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.83 (ranked 50 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

DePaul

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1421.5 (ranked 293 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.18 (ranked 163 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Georgetown

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1516.4 (ranked 162 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.01 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Marquette

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1624.4 (ranked 42 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.06 (ranked 67 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Providence

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1486.4 (ranked 209 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.84 (ranked 98 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 173 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Seton Hall

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1487.3 (ranked 205 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.87 (ranked 65 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

St John’s

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1678.3 (ranked 13 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.62 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UConn

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1703.9 (ranked 7 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +49.12 (ranked 2 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 90 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Villanova

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1581.6 (ranked 77 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.32 (ranked 72 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Xavier

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1582.3 (ranked 75 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.36 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 307 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBE

TagsBE Big East