Big South Update: Week 2

Big South Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big South enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big South teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

  • Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
  • Trending Up (Efficiency): Charleston So
  • Trending Down (Efficiency): USC Upstate, Gardner-Webb, High Point, Longwood, Presbyterian

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charleston So

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1380.2 (ranked 331 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.31 (ranked 318 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Gardner-Webb

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1433.7 (ranked 278 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.47 (ranked 344 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

High Point

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1620.8 (ranked 44 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.55 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Longwood

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1502.0 (ranked 181 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.97 (ranked 205 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Presbyterian

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1418.7 (ranked 296 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.26 (ranked 276 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Radford

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1493.9 (ranked 193 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.15 (ranked 202 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UNC Asheville

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1542.0 (ranked 122 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.65 (ranked 220 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

USC Upstate

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1360.4 (ranked 345 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.07 (ranked 174 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Winthrop

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1537.5 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.99 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big South teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big South teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBSOU
TagsBig South Big South Conference BSOU

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