Big West Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big West enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big West teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): CSU Northridge, UC Davis, UC Riverside
Trending Down (Efficiency): Cal Poly, CSU Fullerton, Hawai’i, Long Beach St, UC Irvine

Team-by-Team Analysis

CSU Bakersfield

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1435.1 (ranked 276 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.12 (ranked 239 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

CSU Fullerton

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1354.6 (ranked 348 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.40 (ranked 336 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

CSU Northridge

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1537.8 (ranked 128 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.69 (ranked 257 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Cal Poly

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1440.0 (ranked 272 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.81 (ranked 259 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 285 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Hawai’i

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1493.4 (ranked 196 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.66 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Long Beach St

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1375.9 (ranked 335 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.29 (ranked 323 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UC Davis

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1485.7 (ranked 210 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.68 (ranked 200 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UC Irvine

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1637.2 (ranked 35 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.99 (ranked 93 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UC Riverside

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1529.2 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.43 (ranked 237 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UC San Diego

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1641.0 (ranked 33 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.50 (ranked 113 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 262 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UCSB

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1541.5 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.44 (ranked 181 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big West teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big West teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBWC

TagsBig West Big West Conference BWC