Colonial Update: Week 2

Colonial Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Colonial enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Colonial teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

  • Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
  • Trending Up (Efficiency): Charleston, Elon, Stony Brook
  • Trending Down (Efficiency): Drexel, Hofstra, Northeastern, Towson, UNC Wilmington

Team-by-Team Analysis

Campbell

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1460.9 (ranked 241 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.73 (ranked 159 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 306 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Charleston

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1603.6 (ranked 57 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.25 (ranked 224 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Drexel

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1500.6 (ranked 182 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.66 (ranked 296 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 260 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 251 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Elon

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1466.4 (ranked 236 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.60 (ranked 150 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 57 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Hampton

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1444.1 (ranked 267 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.43 (ranked 279 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Hofstra

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1491.7 (ranked 197 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.51 (ranked 133 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 217 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Monmouth

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1478.0 (ranked 218 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.03 (ranked 250 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 231 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

NC A&T

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1364.9 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.87 (ranked 217 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Northeastern

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1490.4 (ranked 199 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.64 (ranked 178 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Stony Brook

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1423.9 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.62 (ranked 247 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Towson

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1590.4 (ranked 68 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.83 (ranked 157 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UNC Wilmington

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1609.9 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.93 (ranked 166 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

William & Mary

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1467.6 (ranked 232 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.92 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Colonial teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Colonial teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCAA
TagsCAA Coastal Coastal Athletic Association Colonial Colonial Athletic Association

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