Conference USA Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Conference USA enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Conference USA teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Mid Tennessee, Liberty, Kennesaw State
Trending Down (Efficiency): FIU, LA Tech, UTEP, W Kentucky, Jacksonville St

Team-by-Team Analysis

Delaware

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1471.4 (ranked 228 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.62 (ranked 221 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

FIU

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1398.1 (ranked 320 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.04 (ranked 290 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Jacksonville St

Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1545.2 (ranked 117 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.42 (ranked 140 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Kennesaw State

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1513.8 (ranked 164 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.55 (ranked 222 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 224 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

LA Tech

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1548.4 (ranked 113 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.78 (ranked 226 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Liberty

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1630.4 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.36 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Mid Tennessee

Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1560.4 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.87 (ranked 108 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Missouri State

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1412.2 (ranked 306 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.53 (ranked 295 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

New Mexico St

Record: 1-0 | Elo: 1512.4 (ranked 168 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.34 (ranked 97 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 136 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Sam Houston

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1499.3 (ranked 184 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.93 (ranked 185 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UTEP

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1481.1 (ranked 215 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.81 (ranked 329 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

W Kentucky

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1535.7 (ranked 131 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.51 (ranked 151 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Conference USA teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Conference USA teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryCUSA

TagsConference USA CUSA