Horizon Update: Week 2

Horizon Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Horizon enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

  • Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
  • Trending Up (Efficiency): Cleveland State, Detroit Mercy, IUPUI, Milwaukee, Youngstown St
  • Trending Down (Efficiency): Green Bay, N Kentucky, Oakland, Wright State, Purdue Fort Wayne

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1521.3 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.78 (ranked 219 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1333.5 (ranked 357 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.80 (ranked 305 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Green Bay

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1341.4 (ranked 352 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.06 (ranked 308 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 216 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

IUPUI

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1340.2 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.08 (ranked 213 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 74 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Milwaukee

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1534.6 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.18 (ranked 211 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 165 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

N Kentucky

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1495.9 (ranked 189 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.30 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Oakland

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1508.4 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.39 (ranked 244 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1500.3 (ranked 183 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.09 (ranked 212 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Robert Morris

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1556.0 (ranked 103 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.11 (ranked 164 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Wright State

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1454.0 (ranked 256 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.94 (ranked 143 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Youngstown St

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1542.4 (ranked 120 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.50 (ranked 89 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Horizon teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ
TagsHorizon League HORZ

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