Ivy Update: Week 2

Ivy Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Ivy enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Ivy teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

  • Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
  • Trending Up (Efficiency): Cornell, Harvard, Penn, Yale
  • Trending Down (Efficiency): Brown, Columbia, Dartmouth, Princeton

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brown

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1456.7 (ranked 254 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.70 (ranked 313 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 294 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Columbia

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1435.2 (ranked 275 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.30 (ranked 134 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 138 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 158 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Cornell

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1555.5 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.25 (ranked 135 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Dartmouth

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1431.4 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.95 (ranked 322 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Harvard

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1509.4 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.54 (ranked 180 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 72 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 345 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Penn

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1417.3 (ranked 300 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.93 (ranked 306 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Princeton

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1574.5 (ranked 86 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.83 (ranked 248 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 248 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Yale

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1656.1 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.65 (ranked 31 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Ivy teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Ivy teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Ivy teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryIVY
TagsIVY Ivy League

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