MAAC Update: Week 2

MAAC Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The MAAC enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for MAAC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

  • Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
  • Trending Up (Efficiency): Iona, Niagara
  • Trending Down (Efficiency): Canisius, Fairfield, Manhattan, Marist, Quinnipiac

Team-by-Team Analysis

Canisius

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1359.2 (ranked 346 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.34 (ranked 351 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 148 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Fairfield

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1471.8 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.50 (ranked 189 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 27 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Iona

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1540.1 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.25 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Manhattan

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1464.5 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.47 (ranked 288 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Marist

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1513.6 (ranked 165 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.67 (ranked 131 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 206 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Merrimack

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1521.3 (ranked 153 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.13 (ranked 267 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 226 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Mt St Mary’s

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1517.5 (ranked 160 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.85 (ranked 249 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Niagara

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1445.1 (ranked 266 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.68 (ranked 232 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 185 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Quinnipiac

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1551.4 (ranked 110 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.08 (ranked 298 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 174 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Rider

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1467.6 (ranked 233 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.50 (ranked 346 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Sacred Heart

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1446.3 (ranked 264 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.05 (ranked 307 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Siena

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1443.3 (ranked 269 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.21 (ranked 117 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 177 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

St Peter’s

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1475.5 (ranked 222 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.95 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 329 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across MAAC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As MAAC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAAC
TagsMAAC Metro Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference

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