Mid-American Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Mid-American enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Mid-American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Bowling Green, Buffalo, Kent State, Miami (OH), N Illinois
Trending Down (Efficiency): Akron, Ball State, Cent Michigan, E Michigan, Ohio

Team-by-Team Analysis

Akron

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1635.8 (ranked 37 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.28 (ranked 55 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 163 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 311 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Ball State

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1438.8 (ranked 273 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.15 (ranked 229 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Bowling Green

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1459.7 (ranked 247 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.86 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
3Pt Rate (3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Buffalo

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1399.9 (ranked 317 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.18 (ranked 121 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Cent Michigan

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1457.9 (ranked 251 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.74 (ranked 198 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Steals Per Poss (Steals Per Possession): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

E Michigan

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1449.1 (ranked 260 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.64 (ranked 169 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 52 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Kent State

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1595.4 (ranked 64 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.26 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Miami (OH)

Record: 2-0 | Elo: 1560.4 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.05 (ranked 64 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 279 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
3Pt Rate (3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

N Illinois

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1349.6 (ranked 349 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.49 (ranked 255 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 42 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Ohio

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1495.9 (ranked 190 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.69 (ranked 231 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 213 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Toledo

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1527.1 (ranked 144 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.15 (ranked 173 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 245 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 324 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 54 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UMass

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1523.4 (ranked 149 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.92 (ranked 195 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

W Michigan

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1428.4 (ranked 283 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.80 (ranked 197 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Mid-American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Mid-American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryMAC

TagsMAC Mid-American Conference