Patriot League Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Patriot League enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Patriot League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): American, Boston U, Loyola (MD), Navy
Trending Down (Efficiency): Army, Bucknell, Colgate, Holy Cross, Lafayette

Team-by-Team Analysis

American

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1503.4 (ranked 177 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.17 (ranked 300 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Army

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1418.7 (ranked 297 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -17.16 (ranked 353 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Boston U

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1468.4 (ranked 230 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.70 (ranked 258 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 70 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Bucknell

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1491.6 (ranked 198 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.08 (ranked 183 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 296 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Colgate

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1487.3 (ranked 206 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.51 (ranked 152 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Holy Cross

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1392.5 (ranked 324 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -5.53 (ranked 294 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Lafayette

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1392.2 (ranked 325 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -10.39 (ranked 333 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 254 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Lehigh

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1409.7 (ranked 308 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.68 (ranked 256 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 283 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 210 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Loyola (MD)

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1375.8 (ranked 336 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.11 (ranked 349 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 227 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Navy

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1460.9 (ranked 242 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.47 (ranked 236 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 265 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Patriot League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Patriot League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryPAT

TagsPAT Patriot Patriot League