SEC Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The SEC enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for SEC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Arkansas, Georgia, Kentucky, LSU, Miss St
Trending Down (Efficiency): Alabama, Auburn, Florida, Texas

Team-by-Team Analysis

Alabama

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1707.2 (ranked 6 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.68 (ranked 42 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 353 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 3Pt Rate (Opp 3 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Arkansas

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1602.6 (ranked 58 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.71 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Auburn

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1725.8 (ranked 4 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +28.72 (ranked 41 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Florida

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1742.6 (ranked 3 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +33.65 (ranked 26 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Georgia

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1582.4 (ranked 74 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +39.34 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Kentucky

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1642.7 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +38.67 (ranked 14 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

LSU

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1508.9 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.21 (ranked 36 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Miss St

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1588.3 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.47 (ranked 47 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 334 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Missouri

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1576.3 (ranked 85 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.54 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Oklahoma

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1561.7 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.34 (ranked 90 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 314 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Ole Miss

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1628.6 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +29.30 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 119 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 60 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

South Carolina

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1525.0 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.26 (ranked 141 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Tennessee

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1713.5 (ranked 5 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +45.28 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Texas

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1580.7 (ranked 79 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.18 (ranked 44 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Texas A&M

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1611.8 (ranked 52 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.66 (ranked 132 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 236 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Vanderbilt

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1576.7 (ranked 84 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.99 (ranked 20 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across SEC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As SEC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySEC

TagsSEC Southeastern Conference