Southern Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Southern enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southern teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): ETSU, VMI, W Carolina, Wofford
Trending Down (Efficiency): Chattanooga, Furman, Mercer, Samford, The Citadel

Team-by-Team Analysis

Chattanooga

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1610.7 (ranked 53 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.75 (ranked 304 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

ETSU

Record: 3-1 | Elo: 1537.2 (ranked 130 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.23 (ranked 62 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 184 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 225 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Furman

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1555.4 (ranked 105 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.61 (ranked 326 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Mercer

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1459.1 (ranked 249 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.17 (ranked 252 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Samford

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1591.0 (ranked 67 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.00 (ranked 215 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

The Citadel

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1297.6 (ranked 365 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.84 (ranked 360 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 327 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UNCG

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1504.4 (ranked 175 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.35 (ranked 324 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 264 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

VMI

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1396.4 (ranked 321 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.38 (ranked 302 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Def Eff (Adjusted Defensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 244 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 331 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

W Carolina

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1431.1 (ranked 282 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.09 (ranked 299 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Wofford

Record: 2-2 | Elo: 1535.5 (ranked 132 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.77 (ranked 227 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 171 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southern teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southern teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

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