Southland Update: Week 2

November 19, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Southland enters Week 2 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Southland teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 10 – November 16, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): McNeese, New Orleans, Northwestern St, SF Austin, UT Rio Grande
Trending Down (Efficiency): Houston Baptist, Incarnate Word, Nicholls, SE Louisiana, Texas A&M-CC

Team-by-Team Analysis

Houston Baptist

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1373.6 (ranked 339 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.82 (ranked 261 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Incarnate Word

Record: 0-2 | Elo: 1417.2 (ranked 301 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.30 (ranked 310 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Lamar

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1493.7 (ranked 194 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.84 (ranked 218 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

McNeese

Record: 1-1 | Elo: 1613.2 (ranked 50 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.18 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 3 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 278 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

New Orleans

Record: 2-1 | Elo: 1344.0 (ranked 351 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.36 (ranked 171 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 190 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Nicholls

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1488.2 (ranked 203 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.40 (ranked 278 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Northwestern St

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1440.9 (ranked 270 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.40 (ranked 254 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 290 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 335 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

SE Louisiana

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1451.9 (ranked 259 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.49 (ranked 281 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 249 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

SF Austin

Record: 3-0 | Elo: 1489.4 (ranked 201 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +21.03 (ranked 81 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 44 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Texas A&M-CC

Record: 0-4 | Elo: 1476.1 (ranked 220 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.60 (ranked 234 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Texas A&M-Commerce

Record: 0-3 | Elo: 1338.2 (ranked 354 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.75 (ranked 338 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 211 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UT Rio Grande

Record: 1-2 | Elo: 1416.2 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.81 (ranked 144 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 223 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Southland teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Southland teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySLC

TagsSLC Southland Southland Conference