American Update: Week 3

American Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The American enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1448.1 (ranked 261 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.80 (ranked 184 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 160 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

ECU

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1483.1 (ranked 207 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.99 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 282 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 36 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

FAU

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1593.7 (ranked 66 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.58 (ranked 91 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Memphis

Record: 1-4 | Elo: 1641.5 (ranked 32 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +13.07 (ranked 130 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 289 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 76 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

North Texas

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1618.8 (ranked 51 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.51 (ranked 97 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 96 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Rice

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1405.5 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.82 (ranked 258 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 330 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 131 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Temple

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1505.3 (ranked 174 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.05 (ranked 141 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 332 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 252 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Tulane

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1532.3 (ranked 139 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.66 (ranked 215 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 286 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Tulsa

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1463.2 (ranked 238 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.38 (ranked 105 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 71 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 77 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 92 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 115 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UAB

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1610.0 (ranked 59 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.09 (ranked 147 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 161 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

USF

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1497.3 (ranked 186 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.44 (ranked 62 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

UTSA

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1411.8 (ranked 302 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -7.21 (ranked 303 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 47 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Wichita State

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1541.7 (ranked 119 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +31.30 (ranked 35 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 143 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC
TagsAmerican American Athletic Conference

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