Big 12 Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big 12 enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big 12 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 17 – November 23, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Baylor, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
Trending Down (Efficiency): Texas Tech, BYU, Houston

Team-by-Team Analysis

Arizona

Record: 6-0 | Elo: 1703.7 (ranked 11 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +38.14 (ranked 17 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 281 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 3PA Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Arizona State

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1526.7 (ranked 147 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.60 (ranked 87 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

BYU

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1667.1 (ranked 19 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +42.84 (ranked 7 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 4 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

Baylor

Record: 4-0 | Elo: 1635.1 (ranked 39 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.78 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 31 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Cincinnati

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1577.2 (ranked 80 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.34 (ranked 79 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Colorado

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1561.1 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +14.09 (ranked 126 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Houston

Record: 6-0 | Elo: 1798.8 (ranked 1 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +36.10 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
3PA Per Poss (3 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 64 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Iowa State

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1680.3 (ranked 13 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +35.81 (ranked 23 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Kansas

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1629.2 (ranked 43 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +39.86 (ranked 12 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 198 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Kansas State

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1577.3 (ranked 79 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.88 (ranked 74 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Oklahoma State

Record: 6-0 | Elo: 1564.0 (ranked 97 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.06 (ranked 72 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 114 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

TCU

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1537.0 (ranked 126 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +20.32 (ranked 85 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 214 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 237 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 176 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Texas Tech

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1669.0 (ranked 18 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.56 (ranked 78 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 301 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UCF

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1580.2 (ranked 78 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.85 (ranked 75 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Utah

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1532.8 (ranked 137 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.74 (ranked 151 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 321 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

West Virginia

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1555.9 (ranked 105 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.04 (ranked 73 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 73 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big 12 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big 12 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryB12

TagsBig 12 Big 12 Conference