Big East Update: Week 3

Big East Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Big East enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Big East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Butler

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1534.7 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.29 (ranked 40 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 116 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 133 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Creighton

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1643.6 (ranked 30 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.33 (ranked 65 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 30 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

DePaul

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1433.7 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.35 (ranked 106 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 270 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 43 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Georgetown

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1521.1 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.60 (ranked 69 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Marquette

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1615.0 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.59 (ranked 90 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 292 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Providence

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1503.7 (ranked 176 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +23.12 (ranked 71 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 67 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 53 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Seton Hall

Record: 5-0 | Elo: 1506.8 (ranked 171 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +30.62 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 189 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 109 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 134 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

St John’s

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1671.1 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +37.03 (ranked 20 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 201 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately.

UConn

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1694.4 (ranked 12 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +44.43 (ranked 4 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 120 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 122 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 32 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Villanova

Record: 4-1 | Elo: 1591.0 (ranked 70 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +26.52 (ranked 54 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Xavier

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1585.9 (ranked 73 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +10.34 (ranked 155 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 65 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 126 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Big East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Big East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryBE
TagsBig East

Leave a Reply