Horizon Update: Week 3

Horizon Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Horizon enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Horizon teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Cleveland State

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1501.9 (ranked 180 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -3.05 (ranked 273 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 192 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Detroit Mercy

Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1318.1 (ranked 361 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.12 (ranked 332 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 152 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Green Bay

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1368.0 (ranked 342 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -0.62 (ranked 242 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 298 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 169 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

IUPUI

Record: 2-6 | Elo: 1321.0 (ranked 359 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.71 (ranked 316 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 362 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 363 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Milwaukee

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1527.4 (ranked 146 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.31 (ranked 233 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 179 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

N Kentucky

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1514.0 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.01 (ranked 206 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 50 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 125 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Oakland

Record: 1-5 | Elo: 1504.9 (ranked 175 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.44 (ranked 219 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 360 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 364 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Purdue Fort Wayne

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1488.6 (ranked 203 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.86 (ranked 271 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 93 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 199 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 182 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Robert Morris

Record: 2-3 | Elo: 1540.2 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.57 (ranked 218 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Wright State

Record: 3-3 | Elo: 1454.0 (ranked 254 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.22 (ranked 146 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 13 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Youngstown St

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1532.2 (ranked 140 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.64 (ranked 163 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FTM Per Poss (Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 259 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 137 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Horizon teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Horizon teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryHORZ
TagsHorizon League

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