Ivy Update: Week 3

Ivy Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Ivy enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Ivy teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Brown

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1467.2 (ranked 232 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.71 (ranked 269 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 322 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately.

Columbia

Record: 5-1 | Elo: 1463.4 (ranked 237 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.04 (ranked 88 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Cornell

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1565.3 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.07 (ranked 148 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 207 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 325 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 305 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Dartmouth

Record: 1-3 | Elo: 1431.4 (ranked 277 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.38 (ranked 320 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 333 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 100 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 346 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Harvard

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1492.2 (ranked 195 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.82 (ranked 161 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 82 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 170 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 144 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Penn

Record: 3-2 | Elo: 1443.4 (ranked 265 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.48 (ranked 188 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 110 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 117 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Princeton

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1562.5 (ranked 98 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.50 (ranked 284 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 79 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 123 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 91 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Yale

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1661.4 (ranked 21 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.76 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 342 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Ivy teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Ivy teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Ivy teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryIVY
TagsIvy League

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