Summit League Update: Week 3

Summit League Update: Week 3

November 25, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Summit League enters Week 3 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Summit League teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Denver

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1415.6 (ranked 298 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.39 (ranked 230 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 3PM Per Poss (3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 359 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

North Dakota

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1419.5 (ranked 291 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.94 (ranked 288 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 308 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

North Dakota St

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1522.0 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.53 (ranked 180 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 33 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Omaha

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1496.7 (ranked 188 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.80 (ranked 226 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 268 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 209 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Oral Roberts

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1367.5 (ranked 344 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -1.77 (ranked 257 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

South Dakota

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1470.6 (ranked 226 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.54 (ranked 267 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 89 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 172 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

South Dakota St

Record: 4-2 | Elo: 1551.3 (ranked 109 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.75 (ranked 77 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Assists per FGM (Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 153 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 2 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

St. Thomas – Minnesota

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1556.9 (ranked 104 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.75 (ranked 169 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 200 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 94 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.

UM Kansas City

Record: 1-5 | Elo: 1393.4 (ranked 320 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.18 (ranked 337 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 280 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 315 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Summit League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Summit League teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Summit League teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategorySUM
TagsSummit Summit League

Leave a Reply