ACC Update: Week 4

ACC Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The ACC enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for ACC teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Boston College

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1470.1 (ranked 227 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.86 (ranked 129 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 37 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Cal

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1497.4 (ranked 186 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +17.07 (ranked 52 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 55 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Clemson

Record: 7-1 | Elo: 1676.1 (ranked 17 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.16 (ranked 24 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 276 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Duke

Record: 8-0 | Elo: 1772.1 (ranked 2 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +47.63 (ranked 1 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 142 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 20 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Florida State

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1537.1 (ranked 129 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.30 (ranked 107 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 205 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 1 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 302 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Georgia Tech

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1515.5 (ranked 163 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.52 (ranked 186 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 316 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 113 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 101 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Louisville

Record: 7-0 | Elo: 1632.4 (ranked 40 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +41.91 (ranked 3 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Miami

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1476.7 (ranked 219 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +22.70 (ranked 33 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 187 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

NC State

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1534.0 (ranked 133 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +27.96 (ranked 22 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 69 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 66 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Notre Dame

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1506.3 (ranked 174 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +11.67 (ranked 86 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Fouls Per Poss (Fouls Per Possession): Currently ranked 235 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 107 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Pitt

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1543.1 (ranked 117 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +5.83 (ranked 126 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 167 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 132 of 365 in D1. Trending down moderately 🔴.

SMU

Record: 8-0 | Elo: 1623.5 (ranked 48 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.28 (ranked 46 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Balls Blocked Per FGA (Balls Blocked Per Shot Attempt): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 23 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 3Pt Pct (Opp 3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 80 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Stanford

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1565.0 (ranked 94 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.32 (ranked 119 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 108 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 14 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Syracuse

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1520.0 (ranked 154 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.73 (ranked 58 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 129 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FG Pct (Field Goal Percentage (FGM/FGA)): Currently ranked 141 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UNC

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1652.7 (ranked 23 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +25.31 (ranked 26 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 45 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UVA

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1564.8 (ranked 96 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +24.53 (ranked 29 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 51 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 105 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 202 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 229 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Virginia Tech

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1531.1 (ranked 136 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.05 (ranked 60 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 5 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 81 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 103 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Wake Forest

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1602.3 (ranked 65 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +19.98 (ranked 39 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 140 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 196 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 8 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across ACC teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As ACC teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryACC
TagsACC Atlantic Coast Conference

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