America East Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The America East enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for America East teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 24 – November 30, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Albany, Maine, Vermont
Trending Down (Efficiency): Binghamton, UNH, UMass Lowell, UMBC, Bryant

Team-by-Team Analysis

Albany

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1420.8 (ranked 288 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -19.55 (ranked 318 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 168 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 338 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 293 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Binghamton

Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1405.6 (ranked 307 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -25.16 (ranked 342 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 351 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 24 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 212 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Bryant

Record: 2-6 | Elo: 1523.8 (ranked 145 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.64 (ranked 293 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 341 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 291 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 284 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Maine

Record: 0-9 | Elo: 1432.1 (ranked 274 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -12.93 (ranked 265 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 313 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

NJIT

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1356.7 (ranked 350 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.15 (ranked 327 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 339 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 149 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 312 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

UMBC

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1435.4 (ranked 272 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -8.47 (ranked 233 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 348 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 150 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 68 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 356 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UMass Lowell

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1466.8 (ranked 233 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.30 (ranked 334 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 157 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 10 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 343 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 215 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

UNH

Record: 2-6 | Elo: 1379.9 (ranked 328 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.96 (ranked 340 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 350 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 299 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.
Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 272 of 365 in D1. Trending up moderately 🔴.

Vermont

Record: 5-4 | Elo: 1571.1 (ranked 90 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +0.78 (ranked 164 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 320 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 352 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across America East teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As America East teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAmerica East

TagsAEC America East Conference