American Update: Week 4

American Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The American enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for American teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Charlotte

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1431.8 (ranked 275 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.69 (ranked 188 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 204 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Pct (FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 336 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 344 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 164 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

ECU

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1471.8 (ranked 224 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -23.45 (ranked 339 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 361 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 326 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 62 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

FAU

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1572.3 (ranked 89 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +4.56 (ranked 131 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 303 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 234 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 25 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Memphis

Record: 2-4 | Elo: 1645.3 (ranked 29 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.03 (ranked 112 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 287 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 147 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 297 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 273 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Texas

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1623.6 (ranked 47 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +1.29 (ranked 157 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 274 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 178 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 38 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Rice

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1410.4 (ranked 300 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -9.41 (ranked 238 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 261 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Tempo (Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Off Tempo (Opp Offensive Possessions Per Game): Currently ranked 130 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Temple

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1506.8 (ranked 173 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +2.36 (ranked 149 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 6 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Tulane

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1538.3 (ranked 125 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.59 (ranked 214 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 12 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 304 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 242 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Tulsa

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1486.5 (ranked 205 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +16.80 (ranked 53 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 58 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 46 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 41 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 222 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

UAB

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1616.2 (ranked 54 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.01 (ranked 122 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 49 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 34 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 97 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

USF

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1496.3 (ranked 190 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.92 (ranked 104 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 166 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 87 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 238 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 135 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

UTSA

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1414.5 (ranked 296 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -22.36 (ranked 335 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 340 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 154 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 78 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 266 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Wichita State

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1518.6 (ranked 157 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.30 (ranked 83 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 40 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FTM Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FTA Per Poss (Opp Free Throw Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 159 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across American teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As American teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryAAC
TagsAAC American American Athletic Conference American Conference

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