Atlantic 10 Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic 10 enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.

Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic 10 teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Week Dates: November 24 – November 30, 2025
Trending Up (Efficiency): Davidson, Dayton, Duquesne, Fordham, George Mason
Trending Down (Efficiency): Saint Joe’s, Saint Louis, VCU, Loyola-Chicago

Team-by-Team Analysis

Davidson

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1526.3 (ranked 142 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +6.20 (ranked 120 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 28 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 257 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 145 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Dayton

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1633.9 (ranked 38 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.87 (ranked 56 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 88 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
2PM Per Poss (2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 263 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 11 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 84 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Duquesne

Record: 5-2 | Elo: 1513.9 (ranked 167 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +3.55 (ranked 138 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 323 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 354 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp 2Pt Pct (Opp 2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 230 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Fordham

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1441.2 (ranked 265 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.22 (ranked 197 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 186 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 18 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 111 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

G Washington

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1539.6 (ranked 123 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.78 (ranked 57 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 21 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 19 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 124 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 127 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

George Mason

Record: 8-0 | Elo: 1651.6 (ranked 25 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.36 (ranked 45 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 48 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 195 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Pct (Opp FTM/FTA (%)): Currently ranked 337 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp Assists per FGM (Opp Assists/FGM (%)): Currently ranked 118 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

La Salle

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1427.4 (ranked 281 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -6.66 (ranked 216 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 317 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 59 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 15 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Loyola-Chicago

Record: 1-7 | Elo: 1521.9 (ranked 151 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.01 (ranked 325 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 271 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 300 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Richmond

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1493.4 (ranked 194 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +9.46 (ranked 98 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 98 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 253 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp FGA Per Poss (Opp FG Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 7 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Saint Joe’s

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1556.8 (ranked 107 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.22 (ranked 196 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 233 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
Opp 3PM Per Poss (Opp 3 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 208 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Saint Louis

Record: 6-1 | Elo: 1563.1 (ranked 100 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +15.42 (ranked 59 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 139 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 255 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 9 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 219 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

St Bonaventure

Record: 7-1 | Elo: 1603.4 (ranked 64 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +8.99 (ranked 102 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 239 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 16 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 112 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 75 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

URI

Record: 6-2 | Elo: 1521.3 (ranked 152 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +12.48 (ranked 79 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 181 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 121 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 26 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 275 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

VCU

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1646.9 (ranked 27 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +18.02 (ranked 48 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 17 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 258 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 102 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 106 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).

Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic 10 teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).

Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic 10 teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryA10

TagsA10 Atlantic 10 Conference