Atlantic Sun Update: Week 4

Atlantic Sun Update: Week 4

December 1, 2025 0 By Neill White

The Atlantic Sun enters Week 4 with teams showing diverse trending patterns. This analysis examines each team’s performance trends using MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence) indicators to identify not just where teams stand, but where they’re headed.


Figure 1: Efficiency margin trends for Atlantic Sun teams throughout the season. Teams trending upward show improving performance, while downward trends indicate struggles.

Conference Snapshot

Team-by-Team Analysis

Austin Peay

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1462.5 (ranked 238 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: +7.46 (ranked 109 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 243 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Balls Stolen Per Poss (Balls Stolen Per Possession): Currently ranked 277 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 95 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 83 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Bellarmine

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1343.8 (ranked 353 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -13.51 (ranked 271 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 35 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 188 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 347 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 309 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Cent Arkansas

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1367.2 (ranked 341 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -15.29 (ranked 282 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Rate (2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 357 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2PA Per Poss (2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 355 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 85 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Opp FGM Per Poss (Opp FG Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 203 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

E Kentucky

Record: 1-6 | Elo: 1459.3 (ranked 248 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.99 (ranked 297 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 240 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 250 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 247 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 156 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

FGCU

Record: 5-3 | Elo: 1508.7 (ranked 172 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.42 (ranked 201 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FT Rate (FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 193 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 104 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 191 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 310 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Jacksonville

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1486.7 (ranked 203 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -18.44 (ranked 311 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • FGM Per Poss (Field Goal Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 175 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 86 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 256 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 349 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Lipscomb

Record: 4-4 | Elo: 1568.5 (ranked 92 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -4.31 (ranked 200 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 218 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 232 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 63 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FT Rate (Opp FTA/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 197 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

North Alabama

Record: 3-4 | Elo: 1517.0 (ranked 159 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -14.14 (ranked 274 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 128 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Off Reb Pct (Offensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 22 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 328 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 61 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

North Florida

Record: 2-5 | Elo: 1422.9 (ranked 284 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -16.43 (ranked 291 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Shooting (Shooting): Currently ranked 39 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • Turnovers (Turnovers): Currently ranked 246 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Defensive Trends:

  • Def Reb Pct (Defensive Rebounding): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PM Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Makes Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 365 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

Queens University

Record: 3-5 | Elo: 1483.1 (ranked 210 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -2.26 (ranked 182 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 56 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 183 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp Turnovers (Opp Turnovers): Currently ranked 358 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🟢.

Stetson

Record: 3-6 | Elo: 1375.9 (ranked 331 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -21.97 (ranked 331 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • Adj Off Eff (Adjusted Offensive Efficiency): Currently ranked 295 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • FGA Per Poss (Field Goal Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 220 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp Shooting (Opp Shooting): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp FG Pct (%) (Opp FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 318 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.

West Georgia

Record: 4-3 | Elo: 1402.3 (ranked 310 of 365) | Efficiency Margin: -11.79 (ranked 258 of 365)

Offensive Trends:

  • 2Pt Pct (2 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 319 of 365 in D1. Trending down strongly 🔴.
  • 3Pt Pct (3 Point FGM/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 29 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🟢.

Defensive Trends:

  • Opp 2Pt Rate (Opp 2 Point Attempts/FGA (%)): Currently ranked 269 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.
  • Opp 2PA Per Poss (Opp 2 Point Attempts Per Possession (%)): Currently ranked 288 of 365 in D1. Trending up strongly 🔴.


Figure 2: Offensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s shooting efficiency (eFG%), ball security (TOV%), offensive rebounding (OREB%), and free throw generation (FT Rate).


Figure 3: Defensive Four Factors comparison across Atlantic Sun teams. The radar chart shows each team’s opponent shooting defense (Opp eFG%), ball disruption (forcing TOV%), defensive rebounding (DREB%), and opponent free throw prevention (Opp FT Rate).


Figure 4: MACD trends heatmap showing which metrics are improving (green) or declining (red) for each team. Stronger colors indicate more pronounced trends.

Looking Ahead

As Atlantic Sun teams continue their season, the MACD trending indicators will help identify which teams are genuinely improving versus those riding unsustainable momentum. Check back next week for updated analysis.

Metrics Glossary

Four Factors (Dean Oliver’s framework for basketball success):

  • eFG% (Effective Field Goal %): Field goal percentage adjusted for 3-pointers being worth more (FGM + 0.5×3PM) / FGA. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.
  • TOV% (Turnover Rate): Turnovers per 100 possessions. Lower is better offensively (taking care of the ball), higher is better defensively (forcing turnovers).
  • OREB% / DREB% (Offensive/Defensive Rebound Rate): Percentage of available rebounds grabbed. Offensive rebounds create second-chance points; defensive rebounds end opponent possessions.
  • FTR (Free Throw Rate): Free throws made per field goal attempt (FTM/FGA). Measures ability to get to the line AND convert. Higher is better offensively, lower is better defensively.

Other Metrics:

  • Elo Rating: Chess-style rating system that updates based on game results and opponent strength. Higher Elo indicates stronger team.
  • Efficiency Margin: Point differential per 100 possessions (Offensive Efficiency – Defensive Efficiency). Accounts for pace of play.
  • MACD (Moving Average Convergence Divergence): Trend indicator comparing 12-game and 26-game exponential moving averages. Positive MACD = improving trend, Negative MACD = declining trend.

Analysis powered by HoopSci’s advanced metrics and MACD trending indicators.

CategoryASUN
TagsASUN Atlantic Sun Atlantic Sun Conference

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